UCLA has done enough under Mick Cronin to make “safe bet” feel like a fair label.
Year eight is coming, and the Bruins have spent Cronin’s tenure doing what good programs are supposed to do: avoiding disaster, stacking winning seasons and showing up in March. He’s had just one losing year in Los Angeles, reached five NCAA Tournaments, and won at least one game in every one of those trips.
Even the move into the Big Ten didn’t knock UCLA off course. Last season ended at 24-12, with a No. 7 seed, a first-round win over UCF and a second-round loss to eventual national runner-up UConn.
The roster looks different now, but not in a way that suggests UCLA is stepping out of the picture. The Bruins lost Tyler Bilodeau, Donovan Dent, Skyy Clark, Jamar Brown, Steven Jamerson II and Anthony Peoples Jr., yet they still bring back a workable core.
Trent Perry, who put up 12.6 points per game as a junior, and Eric Dailey Jr., at 11.6, give Cronin two proven pieces to build around. Xavier Booker is back too, and while the 7.3 points per game he posted won’t exactly match the hype that followed him, he remains a useful starter.
Brandon Williams, Eric Freeny and Markell Alston round out the returning group.
The transfer class matters here, and UCLA brought in experience across the board. Jaylen Petty arrives from Texas Tech after averaging 9.9 points per game.
Filip Jovic comes over from Auburn at 6.3 per game, Azavier “Stink” Robinson from Butler at 6.1, and Sergej Macura from Mississippi State at 5. The freshman class includes Joe Philon, a four-star forward ranked No. 75 by 247Sports, plus Javonte Floyd and Gunars Grinvalds.
On paper, there’s a lot to work with. UCLA returns 47.9 percent of its minutes, which ranks sixth in the Big Ten, and the profile looks familiar for a Cronin team: solid balance, outside shooting, athleticism and enough pieces to stay competitive.
Perry’s sophomore jump was encouraging, and he got better as the season went on. Dailey gives the Bruins another stable returning presence.
Petty looks like the obvious answer at point guard, and all four portal additions bring power-conference experience.
Still, the biggest issue is hard to miss: replacing Donovan Dent’s creation. Dent finished third in the Big Ten with 7.5 assists per game, trailing only Jeremy Fears Jr. and Braden Smith.
Perry led UCLA with 2.8 assists per game, and that number rose to three in league play, so there is some passing ability already in place. He’s a good player and a good passer, and maybe he takes another step there.
But UCLA can’t count on that. Petty averaged 2.2 assists per game at Texas Tech, so he doesn’t profile as the kind of guard who floods the stat sheet with dimes.
There’s more to playmaking than assists alone, but this is still an area that could lag.
Rebounding is the other concern, and it was a real problem last season. UCLA finished with 32.3 rebounds per game, 296th in the country, while opponents grabbed 33.4 per game against the Bruins.
Dailey led the team with 5.8 rebounds per game, which says a lot on its own. Bilodeau was next at 5.6, and he’s gone.
Without a meaningful jump on the glass, the Bruins’ ceiling won’t move very far.
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