Ohio State heads into Saturday’s trip to USC with a major question hanging over the offense, yet ESPN’s College Football Power Index isn’t backing off the Buckeyes at all.
The model, which runs its game simulations 20,000 times, projects Ohio State to be 13.4 points better than the Trojans. That’s a hefty edge for a road game, especially with the Buckeyes trying to navigate life without starting quarterback Julian Sayin.
Sayin’s injury is the biggest reason this matchup feels volatile. He left the field with a throwing-arm injury in Ohio State’s 19-15 win over Indiana on Oct. 17, and he is expected to be out indefinitely. This season, he has thrown for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns.
Ryan Day still hasn’t named a starter, and that uncertainty is part of what makes the FPI projection stand out. As of Thursday, both freshman Luke Fahey and redshirt freshman Tavien St. Clair were preparing to see action against USC.
Fahey has completed nine of 13 passes for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. St.
Clair has thrown only seven passes. Neither has yet shown he can run a full offense against a strong opponent for four quarters.
USC, meanwhile, has enough firepower to make Ohio State work. Jayden Maiava has passed for 2,303 yards and 19 touchdowns, and the Trojans are averaging 32.8 points per game. Even after a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin, their passing attack gives them a chance to stress a Buckeyes defense that could be under pressure if the offense can’t hold onto the ball.
That said, Ohio State brings its own overwhelming strengths. The Buckeyes allow only 13.4 points per game, and Jeremiah Smith continues to headline the receiving corps with 984 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those numbers help explain why predictive models still view Ohio State so favorably.
Even so, the 13.4-point expectation depends on the Buckeyes staying close to their normal standard despite a quarterback change. Until Fahey or St.
Clair shows he can manage the offense for an entire game, that kind of margin feels ambitious. Ohio State may still be the better team, but winning comfortably at USC without Sayin is a bold forecast.
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