As we hit the final stretch of the college basketball regular season, the pressure’s starting to mount. The field of 68 is beginning to take shape, but for a handful of programs, there’s still work to be done.
Whether it’s clinging to a spot or trying to claw their way in, these teams are entering make-or-break territory. Let’s break down where things stand - and what needs to happen next.
Indiana Hoosiers (15-7, 6-5 Big Ten)
Current Status: In
Indiana’s been through its share of turbulence this season, but the Hoosiers are showing signs of stabilization at just the right time. After enduring a four-game skid, they’ve bounced back with three straight wins - and none bigger than their recent upset over No.
12 Purdue. That rivalry win doesn’t just look good on paper; it’s the kind of victory that can anchor a tournament résumé.
What makes Indiana intriguing is the quality of their losses. Four of their seven defeats have come against top-12 teams. In a year where strength of schedule matters more than ever, that’s not a bad card to hold.
But the road ahead is anything but smooth. Next up is a pivotal matchup with USC - a fellow bubble team - followed by a gauntlet that includes No.
9 Illinois, another shot at Purdue, No. 7 Michigan State, and Ohio State.
That’s a stretch that could either solidify their spot or send them spiraling.
If Indiana wants to stay dancing, they’ll need to grab at least one more marquee win. The margin for error is razor-thin, but the opportunity is right in front of them.
Texas Longhorns (13-9, 4-5 SEC)
Current Status: Out
Trying to get a read on this Texas team is like trying to predict the weather in April - unpredictable and full of swings.
The Longhorns have posted some eyebrow-raising wins - knocking off No. 23 NC State, No.
13 Alabama, and No. 10 Vanderbilt - but those highs have been offset by head-scratching losses to Arizona State and Mississippi State.
That inconsistency has them sitting on the wrong side of the bubble, but not without hope.
Their recent win over Oklahoma gave them a much-needed jolt, and the next stretch could be their golden ticket. South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU are all winnable games. If Texas handles business and runs that table, they’ll be sitting at 17-9 heading into the home stretch.
From there, it’s all about what they do against No. 19 Florida, Texas A&M, and No.
15 Arkansas. Those matchups could make or break their case.
The Longhorns don’t have much wiggle room, and they’ll also be hoping mid-major chaos doesn’t eat up at-large bids. But the path is there - now it’s about walking it.
New Mexico Lobos (18-4, 9-2 Mountain West)
Current Status: In
Once again, the Mountain West is showing it belongs in the national conversation. New Mexico is right in the thick of it, eyeing a third straight tournament appearance - this time under first-year head coach Eric Olen.
At 18-4, the Lobos have built a strong case. Their only real blemish is a road loss to New Mexico State, and in today’s landscape, one bad loss isn’t a deal-breaker. But here’s where it gets tricky: the toughest part of their schedule is still ahead.
New Mexico still has to face Grand Canyon, San Diego State, and Utah State - twice. That’s four games that could swing their résumé in either direction.
Win two or more, and they’re likely safe. Lose all four, and suddenly they’re sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
The Lobos have the talent and track record to get through it, but the margin is slim. The Mountain West Tournament could end up being their safety net - or their last hope.
Seton Hall Pirates (16-6, 6-5 Big East)
Current Status: Out
Seton Hall looked like a lock just a few weeks ago. At 14-2 in early January, the Pirates were cruising. But since then, the waters have gotten choppy.
They’ve dropped four of their last six, including close ones to No. 2 UConn and St.
John’s. While those aren’t bad losses, the problem is the lack of standout wins.
Outside of a November victory over NC State, there isn’t much meat on the bone.
That said, the Pirates may have turned a corner with a win over Marquette. And the path forward is pretty clear: take care of the games they’re supposed to win.
Getting swept by UConn and St. John’s is survivable.
But they can’t afford to slip up against teams like Butler and DePaul.
If Seton Hall holds serve and avoids any more damaging losses, they’re still in this. But if they stumble again, they’ll be left hoping for a clean conference tournament - and a little bit of luck.
Bottom Line:
This is the time of year when résumés are built - or broken.
For Indiana, Texas, New Mexico, and Seton Hall, every possession matters, every win counts, and every loss could be the one that tips the scale. The bubble is always unpredictable, but one thing’s for sure: the pressure is on, and the madness is just beginning.