With the College Football Playoff expanding and the selection debate only set to get louder, the race is already separating into levels. Some teams look as if they can absorb a loss or two and still be fine.
Others have a much thinner margin. And a few are living in that tricky middle ground where one bad weekend can change everything.
Miami sits near the top of that conversation because the path in front of it is so manageable. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Hurricanes don’t win the ACC.
Everybody else in the league has at least one loss, and the only team ahead on Miami’s schedule that looks likely to offer a real challenge is Notre Dame - which, of course, is not a conference game. Even a 10-2 Miami team would likely still make the Playoff, so the Hurricanes would need to lose three of their final six games to miss the CFP.
Ohio State belongs in that same sturdy category, even after the Julian Sayin injury took some shine off the picture. The Buckeyes can still take a hit and remain in good shape.
Like Miami, a 10-2 Ohio State team would be in the Playoff. A trip to USC is coming up, and Northwestern visits in November, but the Buckeyes’ route still looks solid and very workable.
Indiana has earned its place in the mix as well. The Hoosiers fell to Ohio State, but that’s the main blemish.
At 6-1, Indiana has USC coming to Bloomington on November 14th, and that’s the only ranked opponent left on the schedule. That makes for a strong Playoff setup.
Georgia is in a tougher section of the road, but the Bulldogs are still very much in the hunt. They are tied for first in the SEC with Kentucky, and the next stretch is going to tell a lot.
Florida on a neutral field, Ole Miss on the road, and Missouri at home all sit in front of them over the next three games. If Georgia goes 2-1 in that span, it should stay firmly in the Playoff picture.
BYU has also built itself a strong case. The Cougars are the nation’s No. 2 team and are sitting at 6-0, with a schedule that looks manageable.
The one game that stands out is a trip to Utah on November 7th. Otherwise, there isn’t much in the way.
At this stage, BYU would likely need two losses to make its Playoff situation feel shaky.
Texas Tech has emerged as the top non-SEC/non-Big Ten team not already listed, and the Red Raiders have a favorable setup too. They’re 6-0, and the only ranked opponent left is Arizona, which comes to town on Halloween. There could be some hesitation about fitting multiple Big 12 teams into the CFP field, but an 11-1 or 12-0 Texas Tech team would be an obvious choice.
Then there are the teams that can still make noise, but the room for error is shrinking. Alabama has back-to-back losses and needs to steady itself quickly. LSU is the only ranked team left on the schedule, but leaning on a 9-3 resume would be dangerous, even if Alabama did make the CFP at that record a season ago.
Tennessee is in a similar spot, though with a little more breathing room. The Vols have one loss and can probably survive a second, but a third would be a problem. Kentucky and LSU are the two ranked teams remaining, and avoiding a damaging loss at South Carolina this week is a big part of the equation.
Utah’s case comes with another kind of complication. The Utes are 6-0, but the concern is whether three Big 12 teams would be too much for the selection committee to sort through. They still have Houston this week, with BYU and Arizona also ahead, so a 10-2 finish could still leave the conference in a logjam.
Ole Miss is in the same neighborhood. Texas and Georgia are both ahead of the Rebels right now, so 10-2 should be the target. That could be enough with a split, as long as they avoid other miscues.
Kentucky is 6-1 and technically controls its own fate, but the Wildcats’ road is steep. Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri are still out there, and Kentucky has to travel for the first and last of those games. If the Wildcats can keep the total to one loss from here, they could still wind up in the Playoff.
And then there’s the G5 spot, which somebody will eventually claim. James Madison looks like the most likely candidate, though it’s not locked up. It’s one opening they’re all chasing, and if the Dukes slip, another team could jump in front.
UCLA rounds out the list. The Bruins are 6-0 and have only one ranked game left, the season finale against USC.
The question hanging over them is whether they can keep stacking wins with injured quarterback Nico Iamaleava out. These are the teams that can get there, but only if they thread the needle.
In Other News...
Ryan Day Is Still Complaining About How Indiana Defended Jeremiah Smith
Curt Cignetti had plenty to point to after Indianas narrow loss to Ohio State, especially the way the Hoosiers handled Jeremiah Smith. On his weekly radio show, Cignetti credited the defensive plan for keeping the standout receiver in check, noting the mix of double teams and pressure on the quarterback that helped limit Smith to a season-low 68 yards.
Ryan Day, for his part, acknowledged the challenge Indiana presented but still came away sounding irritated by the way the game was officiated. On his own weekly radio show after Ohio States 19-15 win over Indiana, Day said he felt Smith was impacted by uncalled penalties, adding another layer to a game that already drew plenty of attention for how the Hoosiers defended one of college footballs most dangerous targets. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Offense Faces A Huge Opening In Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor is shaping up as one of those early-season tests where both offenses arrive with more questions than answers, and Indiana has a real chance to make the matchup uncomfortable. The Hoosiers have leaned on quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Charlie Becker to keep their attack moving, while Michigan is turning to true freshman Tommy Carr after making a change at quarterback, a reminder that neither side is settled heading into this one.
For Indiana, the opening may be there if it can exploit the Wolverines uncertainty while also finding a little more balance of its own. Both teams have had issues getting their rushing and passing games where they want them, so the margin could come down to which defense holds up better, with Isaiah Jones anchoring Indiana and Troy Bowles leading Michigan. The setup leaves plenty of room for one side to seize control early, and plenty of reason to think this one could turn on a small handful of plays. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Has Two Growing Concerns Before Michigan
Indianas unbeaten run is gone, but the bigger issue coming out of the Ohio State loss was how uneven the Hoosiers looked in the areas that usually travel well in November. There were bright spots to point to, especially Amare Ferrells interceptions on defense and Charlie Beckers production in the passing game, yet the overall picture still left the kind of questions that tend to linger when a top team takes a hit.
The running game never quite found enough traction, and that matters even more with Michigan next on the schedule. So does the kicking situation, after Nico Radicic missed field goals in the loss. Indiana has enough good tape to keep confidence intact, but the Hoosiers also have a couple of clear fixes to sort out before the next test arrives. [Read more 🡒]