Indiana heads to Piscataway on Friday night looking to stop the bleeding. After four straight losses - three by double digits - the Hoosiers are in need of a reset, and they’ll try to find it at Jersey Mike’s Arena when they face a Rutgers team that’s had its own share of struggles this season.
Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on FS1, and while neither team is riding high, this matchup presents a real opportunity for Indiana.
According to KenPom, it’s the third-most winnable game left on IU’s Big Ten schedule. But nothing comes easy on the road in this league - especially not in Piscataway, where Rutgers has clawed out back-to-back overtime wins in conference play against Oregon and Northwestern.
Rutgers: A Team in Transition
This isn’t the same Rutgers squad that had fans buzzing with preseason excitement a year ago. After a 15-17 campaign that fell well short of expectations, the Scarlet Knights have taken another step back. At 9-10 overall and 2-6 in the Big Ten, they’re tracking for their lowest KenPom finish under Steve Pikiell, who’s now in his 10th season leading the program.
Pikiell guided Rutgers to NCAA Tournament appearances in 2021 and 2022, but since then, the program has been stuck in neutral. The departures of star freshmen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper to the NBA - both expected - combined with significant roster turnover, have left Rutgers searching for an identity.
Seven of the 11 players who saw the floor in Tuesday’s loss at Iowa are new to the program. The starting lineup has been a revolving door - nine different players have started at least three games - and nobody on the roster averages more than 27.4 minutes per game. That kind of inconsistency has made it tough for Rutgers to find rhythm on either end of the floor.
Key Players to Watch
Tariq Francis has emerged as the go-to guy for Rutgers. The 6-foot-1 junior guard, a transfer from NJIT, has come off the bench in the last eight games but still leads the team in scoring.
He’s putting up 15.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting, including 32.5% from deep and a strong 87.5% from the free-throw line. He’s not just a scorer either - Francis carries the second-highest usage rate in the Big Ten during conference play and boasts a 25% assist rate.
He’s the engine of this offense, especially in Big Ten games.
Dylan Grant, a 6-foot-8 sophomore forward, started the year strong but has hit a wall lately. After scoring in double figures in 12 of the first 14 games, Grant has totaled just 18 points and 10 rebounds across the last five contests. Still, he remains the team’s second-leading scorer at 11.5 points per game and has the potential to be a problem if he regains his early-season form.
Darren Buchanan, a junior wing and George Washington transfer, is another name to watch. He scored 17 points at Iowa on Tuesday and is averaging 8.2 points per game, shooting an impressive 47.4% from three - though on limited attempts.
Jamichael Davis, a junior guard, has been the most consistent presence in the backcourt, starting 18 of 19 games and leading the team in minutes (27.4) and assists (2.6 per game). He’s also shooting a solid 37.7% from beyond the arc.
Freshman Harun Zrno, once an Indiana commit, is a perimeter specialist - 80.7% of his shots come from three-point range. He’s 28-for-88 on the season (31.8%).
Kaden Powers, another freshman, has started the last five games. He had a 12-point outing at Illinois earlier this month but has struggled with efficiency, shooting just 31.5% from the field.
Lino Mark, a 6-foot-2 freshman from Los Angeles, had 13 points in the OT win over Oregon but hasn’t found his stroke from deep - he’s 0-for-16 on threes this season.
Frontcourt Depth and Defensive Presence
Rutgers has a rotating cast up front, including Bryce Dortch, Emmanuel Ogbole, and Chris Nwuli, alongside the aforementioned Grant.
Dortch doesn’t bring much offensively but protects the rim well, ranking in the top 15 in block percentage during league play. Ogbole, at 6-foot-10, is even more imposing.
He’s blocked 25 shots in 19 games and leads the Big Ten in offensive rebounding. He’s averaging nearly seven boards per game in under 19 minutes of action.
The caveat? He’s foul-prone.
If Indiana can get him in early trouble, it could swing the rebounding battle.
Nwuli, a freshman from North Las Vegas, has seen limited minutes and struggled with efficiency, shooting just 35.3% from the field.
The Matchup: What to Expect
This is shaping up to be a physical, grind-it-out kind of game. Rutgers doesn’t shoot it well - they’re dead last in the Big Ten in two-point field goal percentage during conference play (46.5%). But they make up for it with hustle on the offensive glass, where Ogbole and company can extend possessions and wear teams down.
Defensively, Rutgers has holes. Opponents are shooting 39.3% from three in Big Ten games - the second-worst mark in the conference - and the Scarlet Knights are also among the league’s worst defensive rebounding teams. That’s an area Indiana can exploit if they come in focused and disciplined.
The Stakes for Indiana
The Hoosiers are in desperate need of a win. The four-game skid has them sliding, and while KenPom gives them a 73% chance to win this one (with a projected margin of +7), nothing is guaranteed - especially on the road, where Indiana is just 1-3 in Big Ten play under Darian DeVries.
To come out of Piscataway with a much-needed victory, Indiana will need to:
- Defend without fouling - Rutgers thrives on getting to the line.
- Limit second-chance points - Ogbole is a menace on the offensive glass.
- Hit open threes - Rutgers gives them up at a high clip.
Rutgers may be under .500, but they’ve been competitive since Big Ten play resumed in January. Take away the blowout loss at Illinois, and their other three defeats this month (vs.
Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Iowa) have come by an average of just 7.3 points. Add in the two gritty overtime wins at home, and it’s clear this team isn’t going quietly.
For Indiana, this is a test of resilience. The opportunity is there - now it’s about execution.