Indiana vs. Oregon Preview: Hoosiers Look to Stay Hot at Home Against Undermanned Ducks
Indiana basketball is back under the lights at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall tonight, and the Hoosiers have a chance to keep their momentum rolling. Tip-off against Oregon is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on FS1, and while the Ducks come in with a bruised record, this one comes with some intrigue.
The Hoosiers enter at 16-8 overall and 7-6 in Big Ten play, having won four of their last five. That stretch includes a gritty overtime win over Wisconsin, a game where Indiana nearly let things slip away late but found just enough in the tank to close it out in front of the home crowd. Now, with a five-day break looming, the Hoosiers have a quick turnaround challenge against an Oregon team that’s been battered by injuries but isn’t going quietly.
Oregon’s Rough Road and Bittle’s Return
Oregon’s season has been defined by adversity. The Ducks are just 8-15 overall and 1-11 in Big Ten play, and the injury bug has hit them hard. But they got a major piece back over the weekend when senior big man Nate Bittle returned to the floor.
Bittle’s impact was immediate. In his first game back - a tough road test at Purdue - the 7-footer dropped 23 points and went 10-for-14 from the line.
Oregon hung tough all afternoon before falling 68-64 to the Boilermakers. It was the kind of performance that reminded everyone what Bittle brings: rim protection, floor spacing, and a matchup headache in the paint.
His presence alone gives Oregon a different look and could pose problems for Indiana’s frontcourt.
Still, the Ducks are without point guard Jackson Shelstad, who’s out for the season with a hand injury. Without their floor general, Oregon’s backcourt has been patchwork, and it’s shown in their offensive rhythm.
A Closer Look at the Ducks
Oregon head coach Dana Altman is no stranger to Indiana’s Darian DeVries - the two go way back to their Creighton days. But tonight, they’re on opposite sidelines in a game that means a lot more to Indiana’s postseason hopes than Oregon’s.
The Ducks have fallen from No. 37 in KenPom at the start of the season to No. 99 as of early this week - a freefall largely due to injuries and inconsistent play. But with Bittle back, Oregon’s frontcourt is suddenly formidable again.
Joining Bittle up front are 6-foot-10 junior Kwame Evans Jr. and 6-foot-9 junior Sean Stewart. Evans Jr., a former five-star recruit, is a long, left-handed forward who’s efficient around the rim (nearly 58% on 2s) and averages 13.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Stewart, another five-star talent who started at Duke and played at Ohio State last season, chips in 7 points and 5.7 boards per game while shooting just under 50% from the field.
In the backcourt, Oregon is still trying to find the right mix. Senior Takai Simpkins has been the most reliable presence, averaging 12.6 points while shooting 36% from beyond the arc - his 40 made threes lead the team. At 6-foot-5, he brings size and experience, and he’s played with Indiana’s Nick Dorn in the past, which adds a fun wrinkle.
Drew Carter, a 6-foot-3 senior, has started the last two games but isn’t much of an offensive threat, averaging just 1.5 points in limited minutes. Off the bench, Oregon rotates in 6-foot-4 sophomore Wei Lin (6.5 points per game), 6-foot-6 senior Dezdrick Lindsey (5.1 points), and 6-foot-4 sophomore Jamari Phillips (3.1 points), though none have emerged as consistent scoring options.
By the Numbers: Oregon’s Struggles
There’s no sugarcoating it - Oregon’s offense has been stuck in neutral during Big Ten play. The Ducks rank dead last in the conference in points per possession and sit near the bottom in shooting percentages across the board: 17th in 2-point, 3-point, and free throw percentage. They also rank 16th in turnover percentage, which tells you how tough it's been for them to generate clean looks and take care of the ball.
Defensively, the issues don’t stop. Oregon is the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big Ten and ranks 14th in opponent free-throw rate - meaning they’re putting teams on the line far too often.
Still, credit to the Ducks for continuing to compete. Their effort at Purdue showed they’re not mailing it in, and with Bittle back, they’ve got a legitimate interior presence who can keep them in games.
What It Means for Indiana
This is a game Indiana has to win - plain and simple. KenPom gives the Hoosiers an 85% chance of victory, with a projected 11-point margin. Bart Torvik’s model is even more optimistic, favoring Indiana by 13.
The Hoosiers have the edge in the backcourt, and that should be the difference. With Oregon lacking a true point guard and struggling to create efficient offense, Indiana’s guards need to set the tone early and often. A strong shooting night would go a long way in avoiding any late-game drama.
More importantly, this is one of four remaining conference home games for Indiana. Win those, and the Hoosiers are looking at 11 Big Ten wins - a number that should comfortably lock up an NCAA tournament berth in Darian DeVries’ first season at the helm.
Bottom line: take care of business tonight, and Indiana keeps its postseason path on track.