Indiana is back in Bloomington after a demanding two-game swing out West, and the Hoosiers are looking to regroup and recharge inside the friendly confines of Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Up next: a Saturday noon showdown with a surging Wisconsin squad that’s won seven of its last eight and sits near the top of the Big Ten standings at 16-6 overall, 8-3 in conference play.
This matchup marks a pivotal point in Indiana’s season. With a 6-6 record through 12 Big Ten games, the Hoosiers now enter a stretch where five of their final eight regular-season contests are at home. That’s a big deal, especially with KenPom favoring IU in four of those five Assembly Hall matchups-including Saturday’s against the Badgers and Monday’s tilt with Oregon.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, comes in rested and ready. The Badgers haven’t played since January 31, a win over Ohio State, and they haven’t been on the road since January 22 at Penn State. That’s a 10-day break from travel-plenty of time to reset for a tough road environment.
Indiana’s recent trip to California was a mixed bag: a double-overtime win over UCLA followed by a loss to USC. The Hoosiers returned to Bloomington on Wednesday, giving them a couple of days to recover and prepare for the noon tip.
Breaking Down the Badgers
Greg Gard is in his 11th season leading Wisconsin, and while the program still prides itself on discipline and ball security, this year’s team looks a little different. The Badgers are playing faster-68th nationally in tempo according to KenPom-as they’ve evolved from their traditionally methodical approach into a group that wants to get out and run. But even with the uptick in pace, they’re still taking care of the ball at an elite level, turning it over on just 13.7% of possessions (17th-best in the country).
Gard had to retool after losing three starters-John Tonje, Steven Crowl, and Max Klesmit-but he’s done just that. Returning players like John Blackwell and Nolan Winter have stepped up, and a few key additions from the transfer portal and overseas have rounded out a deep, balanced roster.
The backcourt is the engine of this team, led by Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. Boyd, a lefty guard who’s bounced from Florida Atlantic to San Diego State before landing in Madison, is having a career year.
He’s averaging 20 points per game-his best mark yet-along with 3.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 30 minutes. He’s shooting 47.7% from the field and over 82% from the line.
The scouting report is simple: force him right. But executing that has been easier said than done.
Blackwell, now a junior, has developed into one of the top two-way guards in the Big Ten. He’s putting up 18.5 points per game, pulling down five boards, and leads the team with 27 steals. He’s also become a legitimate threat from deep, increasing both his volume and efficiency-up to 6.9 attempts per game from three, hitting at a 37.5% clip.
Virginia transfer Andrew Rohde, a 6-foot-6 wing from Wisconsin, starts at the three. He missed the Ohio State game with a wrist injury but isn’t expected to miss much time, so there’s a good chance he’s back on the floor Saturday. Rohde averages 6.5 points in just under 25 minutes per game and is a career 32.8% shooter from beyond the arc.
In the frontcourt, the Badgers start 7-footer Nolan Winter and freshman Aleksas Bieliauskas. Winter is the team’s top rebounder at 8.7 per game and adds 13.8 points while shooting nearly 72% on twos. He also leads the team in blocks (1.2 per game) and has shown he can stretch the floor a bit, knocking down 32.4% of his threes on 68 attempts.
Bieliauskas, a 6-foot-10 Lithuanian big man, has been a spark plug off the bench, especially in Wisconsin’s road win at Michigan where he hit five threes. He’s averaging 4.6 points and 4.1 rebounds in 17.7 minutes, and he’s hit 14 of his 42 attempts from deep this season.
Wisconsin’s rotation runs eight deep, with Austin Rapp, Braeden Carrington, and Jack Janicki providing bench support.
Rapp, a 6-foot-10 sophomore from Australia by way of Portland, has had some hot shooting nights-most notably a 5-for-7 outing from deep against Ohio State. He’s averaging 8.9 points in 21 minutes per game.
Carrington, a 6-foot-5 wing who started his college career at Minnesota and spent last season at Tulsa, is a pure perimeter threat. Nearly 90% of his shots come from beyond the arc, and he’s hitting 41.6% of them, including 40.7% in Big Ten play.
Janicki, another Minnesota native, started in Rohde’s absence last game. He’s averaging just 2.4 points on 31.1% shooting in 17.2 minutes per game, but gives Gard another rotation piece on the wing.
Numbers That Matter
Both Indiana and Wisconsin rely heavily on the three-point shot. In Big Ten play, the Hoosiers get 41.6% of their scoring from deep, while the Badgers aren’t far behind at 40.1%. That’s a key stat to watch Saturday-who gets hot from beyond the arc could very well dictate the outcome.
Wisconsin has the edge when it comes to ball security and getting to the free-throw line. Indiana’s defense has struggled to keep opponents off the stripe-Big Ten teams are posting a free-throw rate of 41.3% against the Hoosiers, the highest in the league. That’s not ideal when you’re facing a team that shoots 80.7% from the line, second-best in the conference.
Neither team is particularly disruptive defensively. Wisconsin ranks 16th in the Big Ten in turnover percentage and doesn’t block many shots. Indiana’s not far behind in those areas, so this likely won’t be a game where defensive havoc tells the story.
What to Watch
This one could come down to which team finds its rhythm from three. Wisconsin had a rough shooting night early in the season at Nebraska, going just 7-for-32 from deep. But since then, the Badgers have caught fire on the road, hitting 44 of 101 threes (43.6%) in wins at Michigan, Minnesota, and Penn State.
Assembly Hall can be a game-changer for Indiana. The Hoosiers fed off a raucous crowd in their win over Purdue, but that same energy was missing in home losses to Nebraska and Iowa. If the crowd shows up like it did against the Boilermakers, it could swing the momentum back in IU’s favor.
According to KenPom, Indiana is a five-point favorite with a 65% chance of winning. Bart Torvik’s numbers are even more optimistic, giving the Hoosiers a six-point edge and a 72% win probability.
Bottom line: it’s February, the Big Ten race is heating up, and both teams have plenty on the line. Indiana needs to protect home court.
Wisconsin wants to keep climbing. Expect a battle.