As Indiana embarks on a crucial three-game home stand, the Hoosiers are set to host Northwestern on Tuesday night. With the Wildcats sporting an 11-16 overall record and a 3-13 mark in Big Ten play, this matchup is pivotal for Indiana's NCAA tournament aspirations.
After securing back-to-back home victories against Wisconsin and Oregon, Indiana hit a roadblock with tough losses to Illinois and Purdue, totaling a 49-point deficit. Now, with three of their last four regular-season games at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers need a strong finish. A 2-2 record might keep them in the tournament conversation, but a 3-1 finish would solidify their chances.
Next up is Northwestern, a team that has had Indiana's number lately, winning the last five encounters, including two in Bloomington.
Meet the Wildcats
Under Chris Collins, now in his 13th year at Northwestern, the Wildcats are facing a challenging season. Collins, who has 204 career wins and three NCAA tournament appearances, is navigating his first losing season since 2021-22.
This season has been tough following the graduations of key players like Boo Buie, Brooks Barnhizer, and Ty Berry. Northwestern's lineup, led by senior Nick Martinelli, has shown inconsistency. Martinelli is a standout, averaging 22.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game, while shooting impressively across the board.
Junior point guard Jayden Reid, a South Florida transfer, contributes 10.1 points and 4.9 assists per game, though his shooting has been streaky. Freshman Jake West has been a recent bright spot, showing potential with a strong performance against Iowa.
The Wildcats' frontcourt features freshmen Tre Singleton and Tyler Kropp. Singleton, a high school champion, has been solid inside, while Kropp, who joined the starting lineup in January, offers depth.
Arrinten Page, a Cincinnati transfer, has been effective, but his minutes have dwindled recently. Despite these challenges, Northwestern will look to disrupt Indiana's rhythm.
Tempo-Free Preview
In conference play, Northwestern struggles in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re shooting 31.7 percent from beyond the arc and 48.7 percent on two-point attempts. Their reliance on low-volume three-point shooting contrasts with Indiana, which ranks fifth in the league for points from threes.
Defensively, Northwestern ranks last in rebounding and near the bottom in opponent free-throw rate. For Indiana, controlling the boards and capitalizing on free throws will be crucial.
What It Comes Down To
Projections favor Indiana, with KenPom giving the Hoosiers a 76 percent chance of victory and Bart Torvik projecting a 10-point win with an 82 percent probability.
The key for Indiana will be containing Martinelli, forcing him into tough shots and keeping him off the free-throw line. Offensively, Indiana thrives when the ball moves through the paint and around the perimeter for clean looks.
Expect Northwestern to slow the pace and try to spoil Indiana's tournament hopes. This game is a must-win for the Hoosiers as they aim to secure their spot in March Madness.