Indiana basketball is gearing up for a crucial matchup against Michigan State, looking to rebound from a tough 72-68 loss to Northwestern. The Hoosiers will host the Spartans at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Sunday, aiming to secure a pivotal quad one victory.
Tipoff is set for 3:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Tuesday's defeat was a setback for Indiana's NCAA tournament hopes, but the upcoming game offers a chance to turn the tide. The Spartans, riding a three-game winning streak, recently edged out Purdue 76-74 and are aiming for a top-four finish in the Big Ten.
The First Encounter
In their last meeting, Indiana was neck and neck with Michigan State until the Spartans unleashed a 28-7 run, sealing a 21-point victory. Turnovers were a major issue for Indiana, with 14 giveaways leading to 29 Spartan points. Additionally, Michigan State dominated the fast-break points 25-12, a troubling trend for Indiana, which has struggled to score in transition.
The frontcourt battle was another area where Indiana faltered. Reed Bailey and Sam Alexis struggled, while Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper combined for 23 points and 17 rebounds.
The Spartans also excelled on the boards, grabbing 48.1 percent of their missed shots and scoring 11 second-chance points. This rebounding edge has been a recurring problem for Indiana, which has been outscored 42-6 in second-chance points over the last three games.
Jeremy Fears Jr. was a standout for Michigan State, posting 23 points, 10 assists, and four rebounds in their previous matchup. His playmaking and scoring were pivotal in the Spartans' win.
Tempo-Free Preview
Michigan State's defense is formidable, ranking third in the Big Ten for points per possession allowed. Indiana managed only .93 points per possession in their last meeting, a figure they need to improve significantly.
The Spartans excel in defensive rebounding and 2-point field goal percentage defense, making Indiana's perimeter shooting crucial. The Hoosiers have shot 38.7 percent from three in their conference wins, but only 31.2 percent in losses.
Indiana's primary concern is defensive rebounding. Michigan State's offensive rebounding prowess could spell trouble if the Hoosiers don't tighten up on the boards.
What It Comes Down To
Projections slightly favor Michigan State, with KenPom giving them a four-point edge and a 36 percent chance for an Indiana victory. Bart Torvik sees a closer contest with a one-point Spartan win and a 47 percent chance for Indiana.
Michigan State is peaking at the right time, having rebounded from a blowout loss to Wisconsin with wins over UCLA, Ohio State, and Purdue. Indiana, on the other hand, is searching for answers after losses to Illinois, Purdue, and Northwestern.
Sunday's game will be a test of Indiana's resilience and determination. With the NCAA tournament still within reach, the Hoosiers need a complete performance and strong presence on the glass to secure an upset. Michigan State has shown vulnerability on the road, with losses to Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, but Indiana must elevate their play to capitalize on this opportunity.