Week 5 in the Big Ten brings eight conference games, and SP+ sees a slate that leans toward the favorites.
The conference schedule rolled through a wild opening stretch last weekend, with Iowa edging Michigan 20-19, Oregon handling USC 41-27 and Wisconsin storming back in the fourth quarter to beat Penn State 24-20 on the road. This week, though, the spotlight shifts to another full batch of league matchups, while UCLA and Oregon sit out on byes. The Bruins and Ducks are set to meet in Week 6 at Autzen Stadium.
Penn State opens the weekend on Friday night at Northwestern, and SP+ gives the Nittany Lions the edge in Evanston. The projection calls for Penn State to win 28-21, with a 67 percent win probability and a projected margin of 7.1 points.
Saturday’s noon window includes Michigan at Minnesota, where the model projects a 26-20 Wolverines victory. Michigan’s win probability sits at 63 percent, with a projected margin of 5.3 points.
At 12:30 p.m. ET, Wisconsin is favored to keep rolling at home against Michigan State. SP+ has the Badgers winning 28-19, giving Wisconsin a 72 percent chance and a 9.1-point projected margin.
The biggest number on the board belongs to Ohio State’s trip to Iowa. SP+ projects a 30-19 Buckeyes win, with Ohio State carrying a 76 percent win probability and an 11.5-point margin.
Nebraska is also expected to handle business at home against Maryland. The projection has the Cornhuskers winning 34-19, with Nebraska at 84 percent to win and a 15.6-point margin.
Illinois is the heaviest favorite among the afternoon games. SP+ projects the Illini to beat Purdue 40-22, which comes with an 86 percent win probability and a 17.5-point margin.
In prime time, USC hosts Washington and the model leans toward the Trojans. SP+ projects USC to win 32-24, with a 70 percent chance and an 8.2-point margin.
The final projection on the board is Indiana over Rutgers, and it’s the most lopsided of the week. SP+ has Indiana winning 42-16, with a 95 percent win probability and a 26-point margin.
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