Indiana’s first loss of the season barely moved the needle in ESPN’s eyes.
IU football dropped a tight 19-15 decision to Ohio State at Memorial Stadium in Week 7, but the Hoosiers still sit at 6-1 and actually climbed two spots in the ESPN Football Power Index. Indiana opened the season at No. 6 in the FPI and now checks in at No. 5, behind Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami (FL).
The Hoosiers have already put together wins over North Texas 52-16, Howard 55-0, Western Kentucky 38-0, Northwestern 29-23, Rutgers 47-15 and Nebraska 20-17.
Now Indiana turns back to the road, with a 12 p.m. ET kickoff at Michigan on Saturday on FOX. It’s the program’s fourth Big Noon Kickoff appearance this season.
ESPN’s updated game-by-game projections still like IU in every remaining matchup, starting with Michigan. The Hoosiers are given an 82.2% chance to win in Ann Arbor, a slight dip from 82.6% last week and up from 65.5% in the preseason.
The numbers are even more lopsided for the next home game against Minnesota on October 31. Indiana is projected to win that one with a 97.0% chance, a small bump from 96.8% last week and above the preseason mark of 95.6%.
USC comes next on November 14, and the FPI gives IU an 85.2% chance there. That’s down from 86.0% a week ago, but still well above the 77.3% preseason projection.
Indiana’s November 21 trip to Washington comes with an 88.9% win probability, down from 90.4% last week and up from 76.2% before the season.
The regular-season finale against Purdue on November 28 is the strongest remaining projection on the slate. IU has a 95.9% chance to win, up from 95.2% last week and just a shade below the preseason number of 96.1%.
For all the talk that comes with a first loss, ESPN’s outlook hasn’t really changed. The preseason forecast still has Indiana finishing 11-1.
In Other News...
Former Hoosier Just Gave Indiana Fans A New NFL Milestone
Former Indiana players kept turning up across the NFL in Week 6, with the latest round of game action giving Hoosier fans another reason to keep one eye on Sundays. The weekly rundown tracked who dressed, who played, and how much work they handled on offense and special teams, while also updating the season-long totals for a group that continues to carve out roles around the league.
Omar Cooper Jr. delivered the biggest moment of the bunch by finding the end zone for the first time in the NFL, a tidy milestone for a former Hoosier who is still building his pro rsum. The full check-in also noted which former Indiana standouts were inactive or sidelined on injured reserve, a reminder that the Hoosiers NFL footprint is deeper than one headline play and still very much in motion. [Read more 🡒]
Arch Manning Chatter Just Pulled Indiana Into A Bigger QB Debate
The Arch Manning conversation has started to spill beyond Texas, and it has pulled Indiana into a broader offseason quarterback debate around what elite programs want versus what young passers need to develop. Several analysts and writers have floated the idea that Manning might be better served at another school, even as Steve Sarkisian has reiterated that Manning is the Longhorns starter and made clear the performance still has to improve.
For Indiana fans, the bigger takeaway is how quickly one quarterback room can become a national referendum on patience, fit and opportunity. Texas is also giving more first-team practice work to redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr., which only adds another layer to the discussion, but the larger question remains unresolved as the noise around Manning grows and the Longhorns sort out their next steps. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Suddenly Faces A New Reality In The Big Ten
Week 7 left the Big Ten looking a lot different, and Indiana was part of the shakeup after taking its first loss of the season and seeing its winning streak come to an end. In a conference where every weekend can redraw the map, the Hoosiers now have to reset quickly as the standings tighten and the margin for error gets much smaller.
Around them, the league delivered more turbulence, from Maryland parting with defensive coordinator Ted Monachino after a loss to Rutgers to the Scarlet Knights climbing in the power rankings. For Indiana, the larger lesson is clear: the early-season momentum is gone, and the next stretch will show whether the Hoosiers can answer the new pressure that comes with being pursued instead of chasing. [Read more 🡒]