Indiana football’s 2026 season is off to a roaring start, and ESPN’s Football Power Index still likes what it sees.
After IU hammered North Texas 52-16 to open the year, the Hoosiers stayed put at No. 6 in the ESPN FPI. Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami (FL) and Georgia sit ahead of them in the current rankings.
Now comes the stretch run of the schedule, and the model is projecting a long list of wins. IU’s next game is Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium against Howard, an FCS opponent, and the Hoosiers are given a 99.0% chance to win. That number is unchanged from the preseason.
Western Kentucky follows on Sept. 19, and ESPN’s updated projection gives IU another 99.0% shot at victory, up from 97.6% before the season.
The first Big Ten test on the list comes Sept. 25 against Northwestern, where the Hoosiers are projected to win with a 95.0% chance. That is the same figure ESPN had in the preseason.
IU then heads to Rutgers on Oct. 3, where the Hoosiers are again favored heavily. Their win probability there is 97.7%, a jump from 92.9% in the preseason.
The first road trip that looks more complicated comes Oct. 10 at Nebraska. ESPN gives IU a 78.4% chance to win, down from 81.0% before the season.
The one clear projected loss on the board is Ohio State on Oct. 17. IU’s win chance in that game is 38.8%, barely changed from 39.2% in the preseason.
Even after that, the model thinks Indiana bounces back quickly. IU is projected to win at Michigan on Oct. 24 with a 78.4% chance, up from 65.5% before the season.
Minnesota visits on Oct. 31, and the Hoosiers are pegged at 95.3% to win, just a shade below the preseason number of 95.6%.
After a bye week in the schedule, USC comes to Bloomington on Nov. 14. IU’s win probability there is 78.6%, slightly higher than the preseason 77.3%.
The final road game is at Washington on Nov. 21, where the Hoosiers are listed at 79.4% to win, up from 76.2%.
The regular season closes with Purdue on Nov. 28, and ESPN gives IU a 96.9% chance to win that one, also an improvement from the preseason mark of 96.1%.
Put it all together, and ESPN’s FPI sees Indiana finishing 11-1, with Ohio State standing as the lone blemish.
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