Indiana’s margin for error is basically gone.
Yes, the Hoosiers are still sitting at No. 6 after their hard-fought loss to Ohio State, and yes, there’s still a path to the College Football Playoff. But in a season where almost nothing has gone according to script, that ranking should not be mistaken for safety. One more loss in the regular season could be enough to turn Indiana’s Playoff case from solid to shaky in a hurry.
That’s the danger for Curt Cignetti’s team. A 10-2 finish sounds clean enough on paper, but a 10-2 team that doesn’t reach the conference title game can get picked apart.
The committee won’t just look at losses; it will look closely at who Indiana beat. And right now, the Hoosiers do not have a résumé stuffed with eye-catching wins.
As things stand, Indiana has one victory against the current AP Top 25. That Northwestern win still looks useful, since the Wildcats are No. 24 and have only lost once - to Indiana. Future opponent USC checks in at No. 16 for the moment, though that could change after the Trojans’ games at Wisconsin and at home against Julian Sayin-less Ohio State.
That Ohio State matchup is going to matter in the weeks ahead, especially now that the Buckeyes are without their star quarterback. The committee will have to decide how much credit Indiana deserves for pushing the best version of Ohio State to the limit.
How different does that loss look if Sayin isn’t in the lineup? That question could become a major part of Indiana’s Playoff conversation.
The flip side is obvious: a loss to Michigan or USC would be a real problem. A 10-2 team with only one quality win is not guaranteed anything, even if it happens to be the defending national champion.
There’s also a difference between where Indiana sits in the AP poll and where it might land with the selection committee. The Hoosiers taking their first loss in 22 months and staying at No. 6 is encouraging, but that doesn’t mean the committee will view the résumé the same way voters do.
And the games themselves haven’t exactly been comfortable. Three of Indiana’s first four conference matchups went down to the wire, and Saturday’s trip to Michigan could make that four out of five. Either way, the Hoosiers have already passed last year’s total of two regular-season one-score games.
If they do get through this and find their way into the 12-team field, that experience could matter. This team has already been tested late, and maybe that ends up being useful if the season stretches into the Big Ten Championship and beyond. Maybe Nick Marsh’s out-of-bounds foot becomes just another strange moment in a season full of them.
For now, though, Indiana can’t afford to think that way. A long road to Indianapolis remains, and even if it isn’t blocked by much right now, it is still a road that can go wrong fast.
Ohio State and UCLA, the two teams ahead of Indiana in the Big Ten standings, have both lost their decorated former 5-star quarterbacks. Nothing is secure.
And for the Hoosiers, another loss would make that even clearer.
In Other News...
Ryan Day Is Still Complaining About How Indiana Defended Jeremiah Smith
Curt Cignetti had plenty to point to after Indianas narrow loss to Ohio State, especially the way the Hoosiers handled Jeremiah Smith. On his weekly radio show, Cignetti credited the defensive plan for keeping the standout receiver in check, noting the mix of double teams and pressure on the quarterback that helped limit Smith to a season-low 68 yards.
Ryan Day, for his part, acknowledged the challenge Indiana presented but still came away sounding irritated by the way the game was officiated. On his own weekly radio show after Ohio States 19-15 win over Indiana, Day said he felt Smith was impacted by uncalled penalties, adding another layer to a game that already drew plenty of attention for how the Hoosiers defended one of college footballs most dangerous targets. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Offense Faces A Huge Opening In Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor is shaping up as one of those early-season tests where both offenses arrive with more questions than answers, and Indiana has a real chance to make the matchup uncomfortable. The Hoosiers have leaned on quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Charlie Becker to keep their attack moving, while Michigan is turning to true freshman Tommy Carr after making a change at quarterback, a reminder that neither side is settled heading into this one.
For Indiana, the opening may be there if it can exploit the Wolverines uncertainty while also finding a little more balance of its own. Both teams have had issues getting their rushing and passing games where they want them, so the margin could come down to which defense holds up better, with Isaiah Jones anchoring Indiana and Troy Bowles leading Michigan. The setup leaves plenty of room for one side to seize control early, and plenty of reason to think this one could turn on a small handful of plays. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Has Two Growing Concerns Before Michigan
Indianas unbeaten run is gone, but the bigger issue coming out of the Ohio State loss was how uneven the Hoosiers looked in the areas that usually travel well in November. There were bright spots to point to, especially Amare Ferrells interceptions on defense and Charlie Beckers production in the passing game, yet the overall picture still left the kind of questions that tend to linger when a top team takes a hit.
The running game never quite found enough traction, and that matters even more with Michigan next on the schedule. So does the kicking situation, after Nico Radicic missed field goals in the loss. Indiana has enough good tape to keep confidence intact, but the Hoosiers also have a couple of clear fixes to sort out before the next test arrives. [Read more 🡒]