Indiana’s second season under Darian DeVries comes with a different look, a bigger roster and a schedule that should tell us plenty about where this team stands. The Hoosiers went 3-0 in exhibition play, and now the real thing starts Monday against Eastern Illinois.
The nonconference slate offers a little of everything, but not a ton of obvious landmines. Indiana opens Nov. 2 against Eastern Illinois and then gets Bellarmine on Nov.
5, Syracuse in Indianapolis on Nov. 9, Tennessee Tech on Nov.
12, Arkansas in New York on Nov. 17 and Kentucky in Indianapolis on Nov. 20.
After that come Jacksonville, Bowling Green, Western Illinois, UCF, Missouri and Farleigh Dickinson.
My read: Indiana should handle most of that stretch. Syracuse, UCF and Missouri can all make things uncomfortable, but the Hoosiers ought to be favored in nearly every game outside the Arkansas and Kentucky matchups. Those two, separated by only three days, are the ones that really stand out.
Arkansas brings a ton of young talent, especially freshmen Jordan Smith Jr. and Miikka Muurinen. The Razorbacks may have the higher ceiling, but there’s still a question about how quickly that group comes together. That’s the kind of game Indiana could absolutely grab if Arkansas is still sorting itself out.
Kentucky feels a little trickier. The Wildcats have the size to match Indiana inside, which removes one of the advantages the Hoosiers should have against most teams. They also have Milan Momcilovic, who might be the best shooter in college basketball, along with enough guards who can get downhill and pressure the defense.
Missouri is the other game that gives me pause. There’s enough talent there to make it hard to call that one a sure thing, even with the Tigers coming to Bloomington.
So for the nonconference portion, I’m landing on 10-2. That would be a strong start, and anything better would be a real boost for DeVries in year two.
In Big Ten play, the picks get a little more complicated. Indiana opens conference play Dec. 1 against Rutgers and then heads to Iowa on Dec. 7 before getting into the January grind with USC, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, UCLA, Penn State, Nebraska, Northwestern again, Maryland again, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue to close it out on March 5.
I ended up at 11-9 in the league, though there were a few games I went back and forth on. Iowa is a good example.
The Hawkeyes are replacing Bennett Stirtz, and I think Indiana has the better roster, but winning in Iowa City is never simple. That one could go either way.
Michigan at Assembly Hall is another swing game. The Wolverines are still loaded despite losing Dusty May, and that’s exactly the sort of home matchup Indiana could steal.
The road record matters here, too. Indiana won just three road games last season, and I’m not fully sold that this team will be dramatically better away from home.
Still, the Hoosiers have two real big men in Samet Yigitoglu and Aiden Sherrell, plus Sam Alexis off the bench, and rebounding should be a major strength. That kind of profile tends to travel better than a team built mainly on perimeter shooting.
That’s part of why I’m taking Indiana at Minnesota, Washington and Northwestern. Even if the Hoosiers drop a road game somewhere along the way, those are spots where they should have a real shot.
And yes, I’m picking Indiana to sweep Northwestern. I know that sounds a little bold given how that series has gone, but Northwestern looks vulnerable inside, and Indiana should be able to take advantage.
The Purdue split feels right, too. Indiana finally has the frontcourt to make the Boilermakers uncomfortable, and I’m giving the Hoosiers the home win. Mackey Arena is another matter entirely.
Wisconsin is the one I’m not touching. Even if the Badgers aren’t especially strong, I’ve seen enough trips to Madison to know better than to pick Indiana at the Kohl Center.
The toughest stretch comes at the end. Indiana’s final four games are at Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue.
I have the Hoosiers losing all four. That’s a brutal finish, but I’m not going to force a win just to make the record look cleaner.
Put it all together and Indiana lands at 21-11 overall, 11-9 in the Big Ten. That doesn’t scream headline-grabber, especially with four straight losses to end the year, but it still feels like a solid place to be.
The Hoosiers would have wins over Purdue, UCLA, USC and Missouri, and there’s room to add more in the Big Ten Tournament. Win two there and they’re at 23 victories. Win three and it’s 24.
And there’s a useful reminder in what Iowa did last season: a 10-10 Big Ten mark, a No. 9 seed and an Elite Eight run. I’m not predicting that for Indiana, but it does show that you don’t have to dominate the league to make noise in March.
I already picked Indiana to reach the Sweet 16 in my bold predictions, and I still think that’s in play. This roster has enough scoring, size and experience to bother somebody in a tournament setting. I wouldn’t call that the most likely outcome, but I do think Indiana gets back to the NCAA Tournament, and once it’s there, a run isn’t out of the question.
In Other News...
Indiana Heads Into USC Prep With Serious Injury Questions
Indianas win over Minnesota came with a heavy dose of concern, as the Hoosiers were forced to piece together key spots on both sides of the ball after injuries piled up. Starting linebacker Rolijah Hardy was already out because of a back issue before kickoff, and freshmen and backups ended up carrying extra responsibility as the game wore on.
The list grew from there, with quarterback Josh Hoover getting replaced in the second half after taking a hard hit, running back Turbo Richard leaving with a shoulder injury and cornerback A.J. Harris hurt late before limping off the field. With a bye week ahead before USC comes to town, Indiana has some much-needed time to sort through the health of a roster that suddenly has several important questions hanging over it. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Stayed Unbeaten But Exposed A Problem Fans Cant Ignore
Indiana escaped Minnesota 23-16 in overtime in a game that felt far more precarious than the record suggests, surviving a wild finish after both teams drilled 60-yard field goals in the final 22 seconds of regulation. The Hoosiers still found a way to win behind a defense that kept bending without breaking, with Lee Beebe Jr. and Nick Marsh among the players helping steady things when the game tightened late.
Josh Hoovers health concerns forced a halftime change to Grant Wilson, and the quarterback shuffle only sharpened the bigger question hanging over Indianas unbeaten start. The Hoosiers have shown they can win in different ways, but this one also made clear how fragile the offense can look when the plan gets disrupted, leaving plenty for fans to monitor even after the victory. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Escaped Minnesota But A Bigger Question Just Took Over
Indianas overtime escape at Minnesota had all the ingredients of a Big Ten survival test, from the late drama to the kind of kicking display that can turn a routine finish into a stadium-wide gasp. Both teams traded 60-yard field goals in the final seconds of regulation, then Indiana struck immediately in overtime with a touchdown before holding Minnesota near the goal line to close it out and move to 8-1.
Josh Hoovers night, though, is the part that lingers beyond the final score. He was replaced at halftime because of injury and ineffective play, and the way Indiana navigated the second half only sharpened the question of what comes next at quarterback. For a team still pushing through the heart of its season, the win was huge, but the uncertainty under center may end up mattering just as much. [Read more 🡒]