Okay, this is a little early, sure. Indiana is only two games into the 2026-27 season, and those first two matchups against low-majors haven’t exactly revealed much. But with a sliver of early evidence - and plenty of time already spent watching this group going back to the summer - there’s enough to make some bold calls on where IU basketball is headed.
Start with the glass, because that’s the backbone of everything Darian DeVries is trying to build. Indiana’s identity is clearly tied to rebounding, and the plan is obvious: attack the offensive boards, lean on two 7-footers, and create extra possessions.
That approach may bring some tradeoffs defensively, but the Hoosiers should be efficient enough on offense to make it work. IU is projected to grab at least 36% of its own misses and finish in the top 25 nationally in offensive rebounding rate, which would mark its best finish in that category since 2015-16.
The scoring picture should look just as spread out. This isn’t shaping up to be a team with one runaway star carrying the load every night.
Instead, the production should come from a deep group that takes turns leading the way. Darren Harris, Markus Burton, Bryce Lindsay, Aiden Sherrell, Samet Yigitoglu, Jaeden Mustaf, Trevor Manhertz and Sam Alexis are all expected to average seven points per game or more, while nobody on the roster gets past 14 a night.
Burton, in particular, should be well below his 19.1-point career scoring average, though his assist numbers should climb past his 3.8 career average.
That balance could also show up in the awards race. Bryce Lindsay has already proven he can be a major offensive weapon off the bench for IU, and that should be enough to earn him Big Ten Sixth-Man of the Year honors. On the other end of the floor, Aiden Sherrell’s shot-blocking and rebounding should land him on the league’s All-Defensive Team.
There’s also a road monkey sitting squarely on Indiana’s back. When the Hoosiers go to Wisconsin on Feb. 19, they’ll be trying to snap a 29-year, 21-game losing streak in Madison.
The Badgers haven’t looked sharp yet against low-major competition, though Greg Gard’s teams usually sort themselves out. Even so, IU should have a real shot to end that streak.
Purdue is another chance for Indiana to make a statement. Yes, this prediction is colored a bit by the Boilermakers’ 0-2 start, which includes a home loss to Valparaiso.
Still, Matt Painter’s team doesn’t look like one of his strongest recent groups, and Indiana appears to have one of its better rosters in years. That opens the door for IU to sweep Purdue for the first time since 2023.
If that happens alongside the road win in Madison, the Hoosiers should finish with a record above .500 in true road games.
In the Big Ten Tournament, Indiana should be in good shape before the bracket even gets rolling. With 18 teams in the field, the top four seeds get a triple bye and seeds 5-8 get a double bye.
The Hoosiers are projected to land at least a double bye and stay in the mix for a triple bye into the final week of the regular season. A first-ever league tournament title?
Let’s not go that far.
The NCAA Tournament picture looks a lot cleaner, though. Indiana hasn’t entered Selection Sunday feeling secure since 2023, but that changes this season.
The Hoosiers are projected to earn a No. 6 seed or better, and that should put them in position to make a run. IU hasn’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2016, and while the NCAA Tournament can go sideways in a hurry, this looks like the program’s best chance to get there since Trayce Jackson-Davis left.
The prediction here is that they do it.
And when the final numbers are in, this should be Indiana’s best win total in a decade. The Hoosiers haven’t reached 25 wins since 2015-16, the Yogi Ferrell-Troy Williams-Thomas Bryant-OG Anunoby team that won the Big Ten and made the Sweet 16. This group probably won’t get to 27, but it should clear the 23 wins from 2022-23 and finish with IU’s most victories in a season since 2015-16.
In Other News...
Urban Meyer Just Added Fuel To Indianas CFP Debate
Urban Meyer added another layer to the College Football Playoff debate this week by questioning how the committee is sorting out Indiana and Ohio State. He said he was confused by the gap between No. 4 Indiana and No. 12 Ohio State, especially with the Buckeyes holding a head-to-head win over the Hoosiers, and he took aim at the committees approach to nonconference schedules while arguing Ohio States ranking does not match how it has played.
For Indiana, the comments only sharpen an argument that has already been simmering around the programs place in the playoff picture. The Hoosiers record and rsum have kept them in the upper tier of the rankings, while Ohio States own profile includes a notable win over Indiana, creating a messy comparison the committee will have to keep defending. Meyers history with Ohio State also hangs over the discussion, which makes his criticism hard to separate from his old ties to the program. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Just Reclaimed Control Of A Big Ten Title Shot
Indianas path to the Big Ten championship game suddenly looks a lot clearer. Sitting in second place at 5-1, the Hoosiers now control their own fate after Ohio States consecutive losses reshuffled the top of the standings, giving Indiana a chance to finish the job without needing help from anyone else.
The twist, of course, is that the margin for error is still thin, and the leagues tiebreaker rules could come into play if Indiana slips again in conference play. Their October meeting with Ohio State already carried an asterisk after both quarterbacks were injured during the game, a reminder of how quickly the title picture can change in this league and why every remaining result matters so much. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Just Got A Reminder How Little Margin It Has Left
After nine straight weeks to open the 2026 season, Indiana finally got a breather in Week 10, but the idle weekend did little to ease the pressure on the stretch run. The Hoosiers sit at No. 6 in the AP top 25 and No. 5 in the coaches poll, a sign of how far they have climbed and how closely they are being watched as the regular season enters its final act.
What comes next leaves no room for a slip. Indiana still has USC, Washington and Purdue on the schedule, and the path to the Big Ten championship game is still there if the Hoosiers can run the table. It is the kind of setup that makes every remaining week feel heavier, because the margin for error is now about as thin as it gets. [Read more 🡒]