Indiana’s fast start has only nudged ESPN’s computer model a little, but the Hoosiers are still sitting in a strong spot.
After rolling through North Texas 52-16, Howard 55-0 and Western Kentucky 38-0 to open the 2026 season, IU is 3-0 and heading into Big Ten play Friday night against Northwestern at Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers opened the year at No. 6 in ESPN’s Football Power Index and moved up one spot to No. 5 after Week 3, swapping places with Miami (FL).
The bigger picture from the updated FPI game-by-game projections is simple: ESPN still likes Indiana in all but one of its nine remaining regular-season games, with the lone projected loss coming against Ohio State.
Here’s how the model sees the rest of the schedule:
IU is favored over Northwestern on September 25, though its win probability dipped to 89.5% from 95.6% last week. The preseason number there was 95.0%.
The Hoosiers are even bigger favorites at Rutgers on October 3, where their chance to win sits at 97.4%. That’s down slightly from 98% a week ago, but still well above the preseason mark of 92.9%.
At Nebraska on October 10, IU is projected to win with a 72.6% chance. That’s barely changed from 72.8% last week and sits below the preseason figure of 81.0%.
The toughest test on the board remains Ohio State on October 17. IU is projected to lose that one, but the Hoosiers’ win probability actually climbed to 45.4% from 40.5% last week. The preseason number was 39.2%.
A trip to Michigan on October 24 is still forecast as an IU win, with the Hoosiers given a 72.1% chance. That’s down from 74.8% a week ago and up from 65.5% in the preseason.
Minnesota comes to Bloomington on October 31, and FPI gives Indiana a 96.2% shot to win. That number slipped from 97.3% last week, though it remains close to the preseason projection of 95.6%.
After a bye week, USC visits on November 14. IU’s win chance there is 83.2%, up from 81.1% last week and ahead of the preseason mark of 77.3%.
The next week brings a road trip to Washington on November 21, where Indiana is projected to win with an 86.4% chance. That’s a small drop from 87.3% last week, but still better than the preseason number of 76.2%.
The regular season wraps with Purdue on November 28, and the Hoosiers are again heavy favorites. IU’s win probability is 97.0%, up from 96.8% last week and slightly above the preseason figure of 96.1%.
Put it all together, and ESPN’s FPI still points to an 11-1 regular season for Indiana, with the only loss coming at home against Ohio State.
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