The Big Ten’s stretch run is here, and the Week 11 SP+ numbers point to a Saturday that could tighten the race near the top.
Indiana and UCLA are the two teams that still control their own path to the final Big Ten championship game next month in Indianapolis, and both are projected to handle tricky league tests this weekend. UCLA gets the Friday night spotlight at home against Illinois, while Indiana hosts USC in one of the day’s most notable matchups.
SP+ likes UCLA to open the weekend with a 33-18 win over Illinois. The projection gives the Bruins a 14.7-point edge and an 82 percent win probability.
Indiana is expected to follow with a 31-20 victory over USC. That comes with a projected margin of 10.2 points and a 74 percent chance to win.
Elsewhere, Ohio State is projected to take care of Northwestern at home, 33-19, with an 81 percent win probability and a 14.2-point margin. Nebraska also gets a strong forecast, with SP+ calling for a 37-16 road win at Rutgers and a 91 percent chance of coming away victorious.
A few other Big Ten games on the board carry more modest spreads. Wisconsin is projected to beat Maryland 28-19, while Washington is tabbed to defeat Michigan State 28-19. Penn State is favored 28-17 over Minnesota, and Oregon is projected to top Michigan 26-17.
The other lopsided forecast belongs to Iowa, which is expected to roll past Purdue 36-15 on Saturday night. SP+ gives the Hawkeyes a 21.3-point projected margin in that one.
Here’s the full slate of projections for Big Ten teams in Week 11:
Illinois at UCLA (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, FOX)
Projected score: UCLA 33, Illinois 18
Projected margin: UCLA by 14.7
Win probability: 82 percent
Northwestern at Ohio State (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FOX)
Projected score: Ohio State 33, Northwestern 19
Projected margin: Ohio State by 14.2
Win probability: 81 percent
Wisconsin at Maryland (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FS1)
Projected score: Wisconsin 28, Maryland 19
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 8.7
Win probability: 71 percent
Nebraska at Rutgers (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Projected score: Nebraska 37, Rutgers 16
Projected margin: Nebraska by 21.1
Win probability: 91 percent
Michigan at Oregon (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Projected score: Oregon 26, Michigan 17
Projected margin: Oregon by 9.3
Win probability: 72 percent
USC at Indiana (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Projected score: Indiana 31, USC 20
Projected margin: Indiana by 10.2
Win probability: 74 percent
Washington at Michigan State (Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET, BTN)
Projected score: Washington 28, Michigan State 19
Projected margin: Washington by 8.8
Win probability: 71 percent
Minnesota at Penn State (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, FS1)
Projected score: Penn State 28, Minnesota 17
Projected margin: Penn State by 10.6
Win probability: 75 percent
Purdue at Iowa (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Projected score: Iowa 36, Purdue 15
Projected margin: Iowa by 21.3
In Other News...
Indiana Just Landed A Guard Hoosier Fans Will Want To Watch
Indiana added another notable name to its future backcourt with the signing of four-star guard Chase Branham from the class of 2027, a move that gives Hoosier fans an early reason to keep an eye on La Lumiere School. At 6-foot-4, Branham brings size for the position, and his arrival only adds to the sense that Indiana is trying to build its next wave with players who can fit the programs long-term plans.
Branham also arrives with some historical context attached, since he is now the 10th-highest ranked recruit Indiana has landed in the 247Sports era. In the schools official release, coach Darian DeVries highlighted both Branhams ability and his character, which is usually the kind of combination a staff hopes will translate well once the real work begins and the recruiting buzz gives way to what he can actually do in Bloomington. [Read more 🡒]
Lincoln Riley Just Sent Indiana A Message Before Bloomington Showdown
Lincoln Riley had plenty of praise for Indiana as USC turns its attention toward a trip to Bloomington, and the message was clear enough: this is not a matchup the Trojans can treat casually. Asked about the Hoosiers, Riley pointed to an experienced defense and the kind of coaching continuity that can make a team harder to prepare for, while also showing respect for Curt Cignettis program.
For Indiana, the compliments matter because they come with a reminder of what usually decides games at this level: which team can bring the same standard from one week to the next. Riley said consistency is the challenge, and that is exactly the sort of test the Hoosiers want in a high-profile home game, where a strong defensive identity and steady coaching should give them a chance to make USC earn everything. [Read more 🡒]
Tobi Osunsanmi May Decide Whether Indiana Can Survive USCs Attack
USC brings one of the Big Tens most dangerous passing attacks into this matchup, and Indianas best answer may come from the front line. The Trojans have leaned on quarterback Jayden Maiava to drive the offense, while the Hoosiers have built their defensive identity around getting pressure and disrupting timing before a play can fully develop.
Tobi Osunsanmi is at the center of that challenge. Indiana has to find a way to make USC uncomfortable early and often, because if Maiava settles in, the Trojans can turn a game fast through the air. The Hoosiers have shown they can defend at a high level, but this one may hinge on whether Osunsanmi and the pass rush can force USC out of rhythm before the secondary has to hold up for long stretches. [Read more 🡒]