Indiana took its first hit of the season on Saturday night, falling at home to Ohio State 19-15, and the AP Poll reflected that loss with a small but noticeable drop. The Hoosiers slipped from No. 5 to No. 6 in this week’s rankings.
Still, the numbers behind Indiana’s resume didn’t crater the way a lot of people might’ve expected after a first loss in 22 games. ESPN’s FPI actually moved the Hoosiers up two spots, even though Indiana’s own “FPI” slipped a bit from 25.8 to 25.4.
With Alabama and Texas both going down, Indiana moved into the No. 5 spot in that metric. Miami sits ahead at No. 4, with a clear gap between the two teams, and Ohio State is back at No.
That same model now gives Curt Cignetti’s team a 31.5 percent chance to win out, a 28.2 percent chance to win the Big Ten and an 80.5 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. It also pegs Indiana at a 10.6 percent shot to win the national title, while projecting a final record of 10.7-1.8.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ was even more steady on Sunday. Indiana stayed put at No. 5 despite its rating falling from 26.7 to 23.6.
The explanation was simple enough: a lot of other teams dropped, too, including Ohio State, which slid from 29.5 to 26.8 even after beating Indiana in Bloomington. The Buckeyes still hold the top spot in SP+.
Indiana’s defense got a boost in the update, rising from No. 4 to No. 2 after its showing against Ohio State. The offense, meanwhile, moved the other direction, dropping from No. 7 to No. 12.
The AP Poll works differently from those forward-looking metrics. It is supposed to reflect what teams have actually done, not what they might do next. At 6-1, Indiana can’t reasonably be placed ahead of undefeated Miami and BYU, and it also has to sit behind Ohio State after the Buckeyes went into Bloomington and beat the Hoosiers.
The tougher argument comes a little further down the list. Notre Dame’s best wins are at Purdue and North Carolina, which isn’t exactly a dazzling body of work, though its narrow loss at BYU is hardly a black mark.
Georgia, meanwhile, lost at home to Auburn, but it also owns a win at Alabama, something Indiana can’t match with its best win coming at Nebraska. Either ordering, Georgia over Indiana or Indiana over Georgia, can be defended.
Cignetti didn’t bother pretending the season was over after the loss. He put it plainly in his postgame press conference: “It’s still all ahead of us. We can accomplish anything we want, all of our goals except going undefeated.”
That leaves Indiana exactly where it wants to be in the bigger picture. The Big Ten title, a CFP berth and even a national championship are still in play, and the Hoosiers have done enough in all three phases to make those goals look real. Having Curt Cignetti on the sideline doesn’t hurt either.
In Other News...
Indiana Was At The Center Of A Costly Officiating Controversy
Indiana has already found itself in the middle of one officiating controversy this fall, even before the wider fallout from the Notre Dame-BYU clock mistake became a talking point. In the Ohio State game, a roughing the passer penalty extended an Indiana drive and kept the momentum shifting at a key moment, another reminder of how one call can change the shape of a game long before the final score is settled.
The Notre Dame-BYU ending only added more attention to the issue, with a clock error costing the Cougars a final play and prompting the Big 12 to acknowledge the mistake and review its end-of-game officiating process. For Indiana, it is the kind of cross-connected storyline that lingers around a season when the biggest outcomes can hinge on the smallest details, and the latest uproar only sharpens the scrutiny on how these games are being handled. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Fans Have One Big AP Poll Debate After Costly Loss
Indianas loss on Oct. 18 landed in the middle of a wild Saturday for the AP Top 25, one in which five teams ranked inside the top seven went down. Notre Dame, Georgia, Indiana, Alabama and Texas all took losses, and the ripple effect should make the next poll one of the most shuffled in recent memory.
For Hoosiers fans, the bigger debate is less about the defeat itself and more about where Indiana fits when the rankings reset around it. With teams such as BYU, Oregon and Oklahoma State also in the mix after their own recent results, the new AP Top 25 could look significantly different, and Indianas place in that picture will be one of the most closely watched calls. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana's Big Ten Path Just Got A Lot More Complicated
The Big Ten picture got a little shakier over the weekend, with a few of Indianas upcoming opponents suddenly forced to navigate quarterback uncertainty. Michigan turned to freshman Tommy Carr at halftime after benching Bryce Underwood, and the offense responded with multiple second-half touchdowns. Across the league, Ohio State is also dealing with a major change after Julian Sayin suffered an arm injury expected to keep him out for several weeks, while freshman Luke Fahey has stepped into that role.
For Indiana, the timing matters because these are the kinds of moving parts that can reshape a conference stretch in a hurry. Michigans coaching staff is still leaving room to sort out its long-term answer under center, Ohio State has already shifted to a next-man-up approach, and UCLAs Ty Dieffenbach has at least given the Bruins some stability after their starters season-ending injury ahead of a looming matchup with Michigan. It is the sort of quarterback carousel that can turn a clean path through the league into something far less predictable. [Read more 🡒]