Curt Cignetti didn’t need a long speech to make his point about the College Football Playoff rankings. Nine emojis did the job.
Indiana’s coach is looking at a bracket that has Georgia ahead despite a home loss to four-loss Auburn and Texas sitting high after losses to four-loss Florida and Oklahoma, and he wants to know whether bad losses still matter when the CFP Committee sorts out the field.
It’s a reasonable question for a one-loss reigning national champion program whose only defeat came against a then full-strength, No. 2 Ohio State team - and by inches. The obvious comparison hangs over the whole thing: if a reigning SEC champion had that same résumé, where would it be ranked?
That’s the tension at the center of this week’s release, and it keeps showing up in the same place. The SEC keeps getting the benefit of the doubt.
This week, the league landed five spots in the CFP bracket, including four two-loss teams, even though SEC teams are 0-4 against the Big Ten in the last three CFPs and haven’t reached the national title game in that stretch. In those four games, the Big Ten has outscored the SEC 135-54 and has won three straight national titles.
Zoom out a little farther and the picture doesn’t get friendlier for the SEC. Over the last three seasons, the conference is 3-8 in all CFP games outside of intra-conference matchups, including a 2-8 mark against Power 4 teams.
Still, the committee keeps acting like the SEC’s depth is a fact instead of a theory. That’s how you end up with one week after another of teams bouncing around based on who beat whom, while the same conference keeps getting the high-end treatment.
Ole Miss beats LSU, and Ole Miss rises. Florida beats Ole Miss, and Florida rises.
Missouri beats Florida, and Missouri rises. Then Ole Miss beats Missouri, and suddenly that logic gets fuzzy.
Kentucky beats LSU, Tennessee beats Kentucky, and Tennessee moves up. Tennessee loses to South Carolina, and the committee still has the three-loss Gamecocks at No.
Indiana, meanwhile, dropped five spots without playing. The Hoosiers are now No. 9, and the reigning national champs have been pushed into an elimination stretch over the next three weeks. In the process, Indiana was passed by two SEC teams with two losses.
The committee’s explanation is that the bye week hurt Indiana. That’s the line.
ESPN’s role only adds to the perception problem. It has exclusive rights to the CFP and is also a major player in the SEC’s media-rights deal, which makes the relationship between the two impossible to ignore. The more SEC teams in the playoff, the better for both.
“That’s why you see all these SEC teams up there, and some good two-loss teams from the Big Ten not quite as high,” Cignetti said earlier this month.
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti pushed successfully for a 24-team playoff beginning next year, a move driven by the same SEC bias that has frustrated Indiana and others. The larger field should give more Big Ten teams a path that the 12-team setup might have shut down.
Even so, the new format figures to keep sending the Big Ten on the road more often, which could keep feeding the same old argument if the home teams keep winning.
Petitti may have been better off going all the way and scrapping the committee for a computer model.
For now, though, Indiana sits ahead of both Tennessee and Texas in this week’s rankings. And that says plenty about how the committee looks when the bias is stripped away: bad SEC losses should matter more than helmets and logos.
In Other News...
Indiana Heads To USC With A Lineup Issue Fans Can't Ignore
Indiana heads into its trip to No. 18 USC with a lineup wrinkle that will be hard to miss, as starting right guard Joe Brunner is listed out and Austin Leibfried is expected to step in. The Hoosiers also got a more encouraging note on the other side of the ball, with starting cornerback A.J. Harris upgraded to probable, giving the defense a chance to regain some stability in a game where every healthy body matters.
The availability report still leaves Indiana with a few notable absences, though, including running back Turbo Richard and EDGE Kellan Wyatt, while quarterback Josh Hoover remains unavailable and backup Grant Wilson is coming off the previous games action. USC has its own injury concerns entering the matchup, but Indianas challenge is clear enough: protect the reshuffled front, hold up on defense, and find a way to keep the trip from turning into a depth test. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Faces Two Huge Problems Before Its Biggest Game Yet
With No. 18 USC coming to Bloomington in a game with major playoff implications for both teams, Indiana is staring at one of its biggest tests of the season at exactly the wrong time to be sorting through issues. Curt Cignetti made it clear the Hoosiers still have work to do on tackling, a concern that becomes even more pressing against an offense that can stretch a defense in a hurry.
The matchup also carries another layer of uncertainty for Indiana, with the starting quarterback job still not fully settled. USC brings a dangerous passing attack led by Jayden Maiava and fueled by Trent Mosley and Mark Bowman, which means Indiana will need answers on both sides of the ball before Saturday turns into a defining night for its postseason hopes. [Read more 🡒]
Indianas Playoff Push Suddenly Rides On One Unsettled USC Game
Indianas playoff path has tightened considerably, and Saturdays home game against USC now feels like the kind of matchup that can reshape the rest of the season in a hurry. After Indianas recent slide in the rankings, the margin for error has all but disappeared, which makes this one more than just another Big Ten showcase. It is the sort of game that can either steady the Hoosiers or leave them chasing the bracket from behind.
Josh Hoover is expected to start at quarterback if he is healthy, but Indiana is also managing injuries in the backfield with Turbo Richard and Joe Brunner both banged up. On defense, linebacker Jacob Savage looks set to carry added weight, especially if Rolijah Hardy is limited or unavailable. The uncertainty on both sides of the ball only adds to the stakes, because for Indiana, this is no longer just about beating USC. It is about keeping the playoff picture from slipping further out of reach. [Read more 🡒]