Indiana’s schedule looks a little different now than it did a couple of weeks ago, and not just because the calendar flipped to September. Through two weeks, some of the assumptions that seemed settled back in August already feel shaky.
Start with the two opponents that were supposed to loom largest over Indiana’s path. If normal clock rules had applied, both of them would already have losses.
Michigan needed a flubbed replay review system to survive Western Michigan, and despite what Bryce Underwood did to avoid getting benched against Oklahoma, he completed nine passes. That does not exactly scream “offense solved,” even if Michigan hit enough big plays to get by an elite Oklahoma defense.
Then there’s Ohio State, the preseason No. 1 team that blew a 20-point lead against Texas. That result does not turn the Buckeyes into an automatic loss for IU, but it did confirm some of the concerns that were hanging over them. The defensive side looked short on alphas, and the offense showed what happens when Jeremiah Smith is the obvious answer and not much else is waiting behind him in an Arthur Smith offense.
Julian Sayin’s second-half throws against Texas also had a familiar feel to them for anyone who watched Ohio State against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship. That does not guarantee anything about what happens next for either team, but it matters that the alternative never arrived. If Ohio State had cruised to a 30-3 win over Texas, the conversation would look a lot different.
Oregon is not on Indiana’s schedule, but it still matters when you map out the Big Ten Championship path. One of the biggest possible roadblocks has looked far less intimidating so far, and Oregon struggling in the trenches does not suddenly make it look like a team that will get another shot to flip last year’s result(s) against IU.
The larger point is the schedule itself. Indiana’s push for a third straight 12-team Playoff was probably always going to require at least a split in those heavyweight matchups, and there is still another tough two-week stretch waiting in November. But the field around IU may not be as daunting as it looked in the summer.
USC and Washington are still hard to pin down. Right now, it is tough to say either team has clearly exceeded or even matched its original projection.
USC has handled Group of 5 opponents, while Washington got fortunate to avoid disaster in favorable games against Washington State and Utah State. If USC knocks off Oregon later in September, then the Trojans can enter the contender conversation in earnest and we can start asking whether they will be a serious threat when they come to Bloomington.
Until then, there is no need to put up a Jayden Maiava statue.
If that happens, USC would just step into Oregon’s spot among the Big Ten contenders. That might actually help Indiana if the Hoosiers are looking for another quality win, especially against a USC team that still has not shown it can win meaningful Big Ten road games in the Midwest.
USC is 2-4 in Big Ten road games against non-West Coast teams, and those wins came last year at 2-10 Purdue and 7-6 Nebraska.
So yes, the schedule may have loosened. It is also still possible Indiana ends up facing three top-10 teams this season.
That would make this feel a lot closer to 2025 than 2024, and in that kind of setup, 10-2 would look pretty safe for the field. There will be plenty of time to sort through whether that holds up.
For now, the bigger takeaway is that Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon probably all feel worse about themselves than they did in August. Indiana?
Maybe not in that same group. If the Hoosiers cannot run the ball against Western Kentucky a week after Georgia got every blade of grass it wanted, that is still a fixable issue for a coaching staff with an impeccable history of establishing the run.
Defending a mobile quarterback this weekend is another thing to watch, and even if IU checks that box, it does not mean the problem is gone for good. It just beats the alternative.
There is also a case to be made that other Big Ten teams are helping Indiana by revealing their weaknesses now, while IU will not have a team that can really expose its own until Ohio State comes to town. We will play the results with that.
Either way, the spotlight has shifted. It is no longer centered on the defending champs and their 18-game winning streak.
Right now, it is on a Big Ten race that suddenly looks a lot less certain than it did in August. My, how quickly things have changed.
In Other News...
Indiana Defense Suddenly Faces A Bigger Problem Than Week 3
Indianas defensive front has taken an unexpected hit just as the schedule starts to tighten. Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley had been cleared to play under a temporary restraining order for the first two games, but that protection has now expired, leaving both linemen out for the upcoming Week 3 matchup with Western Kentucky.
A judge is expected to rule next week on the injunction that could settle their eligibility, possibly before Big Ten play begins. For Indiana, the uncertainty matters because both players have already given the defense meaningful snaps in the past, and their status now hangs on court decisions rather than anything happening on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Is Already Making New Receivers Earn Their Roles
Curt Cignetti has already made it clear that Indianas receiver room is not going to hand out roles based on reputation alone. Compared with the 2024 group, the 2026 wideout depth chart is deeper and more versatile, and that has pushed the Hoosiers to ask more from their newcomers. Shazz Preston and Nick Marsh are both being used with an eye toward flexibility, with the staff wanting each of them to learn multiple spots as the offense sorts out who can handle the biggest responsibilities.
Preston got the start over Marsh in a recent game, and both receivers saw their playing time increase as Indiana works through the early stages of that evaluation. The message from the coaching staff has been about consistency and adaptability, not just talent, which means the competition in that room is far from settled. Second-year receiver Lebron Bond has also been sidelined by injury and missed the game against Howard, adding another layer to a position group that is still taking shape. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Gets A Chance To Pounce Before The Real Tests Begin
Western Kentucky comes into its matchup with Indiana already searching for answers after opening the 2026 season with two significant losses. The Hilltoppers have had trouble on both sides of the ball, with starting quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. still looking for his first touchdown pass and the offense sputtering enough that Brock Glenn saw time in the second half against Georgia and gave the staff something to think about.
For Indiana, it is the kind of early nonconference opportunity that can matter for more than just the record. The Hoosiers get a team that has been leaky defensively and is still sorting out its quarterback situation before conference play ramps up, which gives Indiana a chance to play with control and build momentum. The real tests are still ahead, but this is exactly the sort of game a team is expected to handle if it wants to be ready for them. [Read more 🡒]