Talking season is almost done, but ESPN’s preseason numbers still gave Indiana one more round of attention before the 2026 season gets rolling.
The Hoosiers, who open exactly one week after the first FBS game of the season kicks off Saturday at Noon ET, landed near the top of ESPN’s final SP+ update. Bill Connelly’s model put Indiana at No. 5 overall, behind Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia.
That ranking comes from the algorithm alone, so the real argument starts with how the model sees Indiana’s roster. SP+ lists the Hoosiers at No. 7 on offense, No. 4 on defense and No. 22 on special teams. With a No. 32 strength of schedule, the model projects an average of 10 wins.
Returning production still matters in Connelly’s formula, and that likely explains part of the drop from Indiana’s No. 1 finish in the final 2025 SP+ rankings. The Hoosiers come in at No. 35 nationally in returning production at 60 percent overall, with 54 percent back on offense and 66 percent back on defense. Even so, those offensive numbers don’t fully capture players such as Charlie Becker, Khobie Martin and Lee Beebe, Jr., though tight end remains a real question mark.
Indiana’s slide from the top spot is also reflected in Connelly’s note about the Hoosiers’ regression from the end of 2025. He wrote: “I guess it makes sense if, after your greatest season in history, you’re expected to fall back a bit.
It sure seems like Curt Cignetti nailed another great transfer class, though. The Hoosiers will have a shot at creating something great again.”
Connelly’s final SP+ also has BYU at No. 21, a detail worth keeping in mind.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach was a little less bullish, slotting Indiana at No. 8 in his preseason power rankings and placing seven teams ahead of the Hoosiers. His writeup pointed to the biggest question facing IU: replacing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. Schlabach noted that Josh Hoover of TCU “doesn’t have Mendoza’s mobility, but he’s more than capable of doing the job,” while also asking whether Hoover can clean up the turnovers that followed him from the Horned Frogs.
Schlabach’s top seven ahead of Indiana were Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, BYU and Miami.
Bonagura and Schlabach also weighed in with preseason College Football Playoff and bowl projections for 2026-27. Bonagura has Indiana as the No. 4 seed, which would give the Hoosiers a first-round bye. In his bracket, IU beats Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl before falling to Ohio State in the national semifinals.
Schlabach sees a different path, projecting Indiana as the No. 8 seed and hosting No. 9 Texas Tech in the program’s first CFP home game.
He has the Hoosiers losing to No. 1 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.
Both projections end the same way: Notre Dame against Ohio State for the national title.
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