Indiana’s 2026 preseason ranking is going to look a lot different than the one it had at the end of 2025, and history says that’s usually how this goes for defending national champions.
The safest prediction is that the Hoosiers will open in the preseason AP Top 10 for the first time in program history. A top-five spot is also very much in play. For a school that has only four preseason AP Top 25 rankings since the poll began in 1950, that alone would be a massive jump.
And unlike the finish to 2025, Indiana probably won’t be sitting at No. 1 when the new poll drops. That’s not a bad omen. In fact, the recent record for preseason No. 1 defending champs is pretty unforgiving: only one in the last 21 seasons - 2017 Alabama - turned that ranking into another national title.
The broader trend is even more revealing. Of the 25 defending champs in the 21st century, 19 began the next season ranked in the top four of the preseason AP Poll. The six that didn’t were 2007 Florida, 2008 LSU, 2011 Auburn, 2017 Clemson, 2020 LSU and 2024 Michigan.
Those six weren’t exactly a model of steady follow-up seasons. Five of them lost at least four games, and four lost five or more. The lone exception was 2017 Clemson, which started No. 5, earned the No. 1 overall seed in the Playoff, and then got blown out by Alabama in the semifinals.
That’s the part worth sitting with: when defending champs are met with preseason skepticism, it usually ends up being justified. The six teams that opened outside the top four averaged 4.3 losses, and only 2017 Clemson finished higher in the final AP Poll than it did in the preseason version, going from No. 5 to No. 4.
Still, Indiana isn’t operating in the same world as those teams, and that matters.
The transfer era has changed what a defending champ can reload with, and Indiana is already benefiting from that in a way older title teams couldn’t. A player like Nick Marsh is part of that new reality. In earlier eras, IU would have been counting on internal development alone - Charlie Becker picking up where he left off, and a young receiver group trying to survive the departures of Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. to the NFL.
That still matters. It just isn’t the whole picture anymore.
Quarterback is another place where the old rules don’t fit quite as neatly. Replacing a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback has usually been a steep climb, and the six defending champs that opened outside the top four in the next preseason poll all had new starters at the position. In every case except Tim Tebow replacing Chris Leak at 2006 Florida, that change was a downgrade.
Indiana’s situation is different because Josh Hoover arrives as a three-year starter to replace Fernando Mendoza. Hoover is the most experienced quarterback to step in after a Heisman winner at the position, and that alone should help IU’s preseason standing.
There’s also the coaching continuity. Curt Cignetti is 27-2 so far as a Power Conference head coach, and Indiana kept both coordinators, including Broyles Award-winner Bryant Haines. Haines became the first Broyles Award-winner to return from a national championship since Brent Venables returned to 2019 Clemson.
That kind of staff retention has mattered before. Among the six defending champs that started outside the preseason top four the next year, three kept their head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator together: 2007 Florida, 2011 Auburn and 2017 Clemson. But AP voters still seemed to value the loss of production and the quarterback change more heavily than the return of the top three coaches on the staff, and Indiana should expect that same line of thinking.
The Hoosiers also lost eight players to the NFL Draft after their outlier season, and that should count for something, especially for a program that averaged one NFL Draft pick per year over the previous 25 years of the 21st century.
Even so, Indiana’s past no longer tells you much about what comes next under Cignetti. The program already proved that by turning a preseason No. 20 ranking into a 16-0 season. That was the lowest preseason ranking for a national champion since 2010 Auburn.
So if Indiana opens a little lower than some fans expect, that won’t decide anything. The only real certainty is that Cignetti will have a fresh chip on his shoulder if the poll doesn’t show enough respect. And if he gets that kind of slight, he’ll have plenty of material for the “nobody believes in you” routine.
Something says he’d be just fine with that.
In Other News...
Why Curt Cignettis Video Game Role Matters So Much For Indiana
Curt Cignettis presence in EA Sports College Football 27 is the kind of small branding move that can carry real weight for Indiana. The Hoosiers coach shows up in the game intro and on the Deluxe Edition cover, giving the program a national platform inside a product that still reaches a massive audience and keeps college football in front of fans long after Saturdays end.
For Indiana, the appeal goes beyond novelty. Cignetti has said the exposure helps the Hoosiers brand and can matter in recruiting, especially with prospects who spend time playing the game themselves. With EA Sports reporting millions of unique users shortly after the games 2025 release, Indiana is betting that a little digital visibility can translate into a bigger real-world footprint. [Read more 🡒]
IU Just Landed The Recruiting Win Fans Waited Years To See
Indiana basketball got a useful summer tune-up in Bloomington, knocking off Canada 98-64 in a rare July exhibition at Assembly Hall as the Hoosiers continue getting ready for the FISU American Games in Peru. It was the kind of mid-summer run-through that lets the staff keep building toward the next stage of the trip while also giving fans a first look at how the roster is coming together.
The bigger jolt for IU, though, came on the football side, where the recruiting momentum turned into something the program has been chasing for years. A major commitment gave the Hoosiers a headline win that fits right in with the broader buzz around 2026 position previews, podcast chatter and the steady stream of IU athletes making news in other corners of the department. [Read more 🡒]