With just five regular season games left, including a Friday night showdown against Purdue at Mackey Arena, the Indiana Hoosiers find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble yet again.
Currently, they're on the right side of it. According to Bracket Matrix, the Hoosiers are featured in all 122 brackets surveyed, holding the highest No. 10-seed position.
But as we know, things can change rapidly, even without Indiana hitting the court. Take Wisconsin, for instance.
Sitting at 35 in the NET rankings, they represent one of Indiana’s two Quad 2 wins. Had they managed to beat Ohio State earlier this week, Indiana's win over Wisconsin could have boosted them to a 3-8 record in Quad 1 games.
Regardless of other teams' actions, Indiana likely needs that third Quad 1 win to feel secure by Selection Sunday. There are a few paths to achieve this.
Beating Purdue, though a tough task, would provide Indiana with a crucial third Quad 1 win and some breathing room in the final stretch. A victory on Friday could potentially elevate Indiana’s seed.
They also face a home game against Michigan State, which will remain a Quad 1 opponent, and a road game against Ohio State. Both are projected to be challenging, with KenPom predicting losses in both.
However, Bart Torvik gives Indiana a 52% chance to overcome the Spartans, though still projects a loss in Columbus.
If the Hoosiers can't notch a win against Purdue, Michigan State, or Ohio State, they'll need Wisconsin to climb back into the top 30 of the NET rankings to secure that third Quad 1 win. The Badgers, currently 35th, have three Quad 1 games remaining.
Even then, losing all three remaining Quad 1 games would leave Indiana with a 10-10 Big Ten record at best. Mike Woodson managed to get Indiana to the First Four with a 9-11 conference record previously, but it required two Big Ten Tournament wins to clinch that spot.
While a tournament appearance in DeVries’ first year shouldn't define his tenure, this roster was built to win now, and the staff is anticipating significant roster changes in the offseason. Securing a postseason berth would be a strong message to recruits and boosters that DeVries is steering the program in the right direction.