Indiana Heads To Minnesota With One Big Question After Michigan

Can Indiana's defense break through in Minneapolis while their offense faces tough odds against a formidable Minnesota pass defense?

Indiana goes into Minnesota on the heels of an overtime win over Michigan, but this trip figures to test the Hoosiers in a very different way. Curt Cignetti’s team is staring at a Golden Gophers defense that can take away the pass, and that makes the numbers around Josh Hoover, Indiana’s receivers and the scoring outlook especially interesting.

The toughest number on the board belongs to Hoover. His passing yards line sits at 224.5, and the lean is under.

Minnesota ranks No. 11 nationally against the pass, and that’s a bad draw for a quarterback coming off an 81-yard outing against Michigan. The Gophers have held opponents to fewer than 225 passing yards in all but two games this season, and Indiana may not need to air it out if the run game is working.

If Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. can get traction on the ground, that could loosen things up later through the air.

Indiana’s defense, though, looks like the side most likely to keep the pressure on. The Hoosiers are set at 2.5 sacks, and the prediction points to the over.

That front has been one of Indiana’s most dependable weapons all season, with Tobi Osunsanmi, Stephen Daley, Marion Landino and Tyrique Tucker all part of a group that can make a quarterback uncomfortable in a hurry. Three sacks or more wouldn’t be a surprise.

On the receiving side, Brock Schott’s line is 2.5 catches, and the call is under. He did deliver a huge 21-yard catch in overtime against Michigan to help set up the winning touchdown, but that was only his third reception of the season. Even with Minnesota posing a tough challenge for Indiana’s outside wideouts, the tight end hasn’t been a central part of the offense this year, and there’s no strong reason to expect that to change dramatically here.

Charlie Becker’s number is a little more complicated. His receptions line is 4.5, and the lean is over.

He’s been stuck at four catches or fewer in four games and reached five or more in four others, so there’s real volatility baked in. Still, someone has to produce through the air, and Becker looks like the safest target.

If Minnesota manages to take him away, Nick Marsh could be the one who steps into that role. Indiana needs dependable pass-catchers who can separate and keep the chains moving, and Becker has a chance to answer after being held in check last week in Ann Arbor.

The team total also points toward a tighter scoring night. Indiana’s points line is 24.5, and the prediction is under.

The Hoosiers have run into serious resistance in three straight games against Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan, and Minnesota brings another difficult matchup. The Gophers have already shown they can handle quality opponents, and their pass defense could keep Hoover from finding a rhythm.

Indiana can still win without crossing 25 points if the defense keeps doing its job.

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