The Big Ten’s Week 10 slate is loaded with eight games, and SP+ sees a few clear favorites mixed in with a couple of tight calls.
The weekend’s headliners are UCLA at Minnesota, Oregon at Ohio State and Iowa at Northwestern, while Indiana and USC are both idle. The Hoosiers and Trojans are set to meet in Week 11 in Bloomington.
Friday night opens with Nebraska at Illinois, and SP+ gives the edge to Nebraska. The model projects a 28-22 Cornhuskers win, with Nebraska favored by 6.4 points and a 66 percent win probability.
Saturday’s noon window brings UCLA to Minnesota, where SP+ likes the Bruins 28-17. That works out to an 11-point projected margin and a 76 percent chance of victory.
Also at noon, Purdue is projected to handle Maryland at home. SP+ has the Boilermakers winning 30-26, with a 4-point margin and a 60 percent win probability.
The biggest spotlight game of the day comes in Columbus, where Oregon visits Ohio State. SP+ leans firmly toward the Buckeyes, projecting a 31-19 Ohio State win. The model gives Ohio State an 11.6-point edge and a 77 percent chance to win.
Penn State’s trip to Washington looks much tighter. SP+ projects a 25-23 Washington win, with the Huskies favored by 1.9 points and given a 55 percent win probability.
Rutgers at Wisconsin is another game where the model sees a more comfortable home edge. Wisconsin is projected to win 33-18, with a 15.1-point margin and an 83 percent chance of victory.
The closest call on the board is Iowa at Northwestern. SP+ has it as a pick ’em in the projected score, with Iowa and Northwestern both at 24. The margin leans Northwestern by 0.7 points, and the Wildcats are given a 52 percent win probability.
Saturday night closes with Michigan State at Michigan, and SP+ expects the Wolverines to take care of business. The projected score is Michigan 30, Michigan State 13, with Michigan favored by 17.1 points and carrying an 86 percent win probability.
Bill Connelly also posted his Week 10 SP+ picks, including Ohio State 31, Oregon 19, Northwestern 24.2, Iowa 23.5 and a note that the model had “MACtion 10,000,000, Rest of CFB 0.”
In Other News...
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Still, the numbers also point to the part of the team that could make things trickier down the stretch. Indianas defense has carried its share of the load, but the offense and special teams remain the areas that need the most attention, and the special teams efficiency has been especially low. In a race this tight, that kind of hidden weakness can matter just as much as the headline-grabbing rankings. [Read more 🡒]
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The frustration from fans has naturally landed on Hoover, but the bigger issue may be broader than one quarterbacks health. Indiana has dealt with limited receiving options and has run into some strong opposing defenses, two factors that can make any passing game look stuck in place. With the games getting tighter and the stakes rising, the question is less about whether Hoover has been part of the problem and more about whether he has been asked to carry too much of it. [Read more 🡒]
Indianas Early Identity Starts Coming Into Focus Against Bellarmine
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The bigger question now is how the rest of the rotation fits around that interior strength. Guard Jaeden Mustaf is one of the more interesting pieces to watch as the season develops, and his role should become easier to define once Indiana gets a few more games under its belt. For now, the Hoosiers appear intent on making their length and physicality a foundation, and Bellarmine is the next chance to see how real that approach can be. [Read more 🡒]