Indiana’s week off didn’t shake ESPN’s belief in the Hoosiers, but it did trim the margin a bit.
As Indiana gets set to face USC on Saturday at Memorial Stadium in a top-20 matchup, the latest Football Power Index numbers still lean toward the Hoosiers - just not as strongly as before. Indiana is ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s FPI, with USC at No. 16, and the model now gives Indiana a 78.2% chance to beat the Trojans. That’s down from 86.7% in the previous projection, an 8.5-point drop.
The line outside the computer models has moved too. Indiana opened as roughly a 10-point favorite, but by Monday morning it had settled around 7.5.
ESPN’s SP+ projection is also on Indiana’s side, calling for a 31-20 Hoosiers win and giving Indiana a 74% chance to come out ahead.
The numbers haven’t swung wildly from where they were before the season. FPI had Indiana at 77.3% to beat USC in the preseason, so the current forecast is still in the same neighborhood.
What has changed is the recent trend line, with Indiana’s odds slipping even though the Hoosiers didn’t play last weekend. USC’s win over Ohio State and Indiana’s recent offensive issues have added some extra tension to the matchup.
USC brings a very different kind of test. The Trojans have one of the country’s most dangerous passing attacks, averaging nearly 300 yards through the air per game, with Jayden Maiava steering a Lincoln Riley offense built to stress defenses.
That said, Indiana’s defense has been built for this kind of challenge. Before the bye, the Hoosiers were No. 1 nationally in defensive SP+ and fifth in ESPN’s defensive efficiency metric. That unit has been the backbone of Indiana’s season.
The bigger question may be on the other side of the ball. USC is giving up 24.2 points per game, which ranks 66th nationally, and the Trojans have been especially shaky against the pass. That could open a door for an Indiana offense that has lacked consistency in recent weeks.
One major piece still isn’t settled: Cignetti has not publicly named a starting quarterback for Saturday.
The computers still like Indiana to win. The real test is whether the Hoosiers can back up those projections with a cleaner, more convincing showing on the field.
In Other News...
Indiana Gets One Encouraging Sign Before Must Win USC Matchup
Indiana at least got one bit of positive injury news heading into a must-win matchup with USC, with quarterback Josh Hoover expected to be available after being left off the initial injury report. Coach Curt Cignetti still has not named a starter, but he said Hoover will be in uniform if he stays clear of the report, giving the Hoosiers some stability at the most important position as they try to keep their season on track.
The rest of the availability picture is less reassuring. Leading rusher Turbo Richard and defensive end Kellan Wyatt have already been ruled out, while cornerback A.J. Harris and linebacker Rolijah Hardy are listed as questionable, leaving Indiana with several key spots still unsettled. Even with Hoover trending in the right direction, the Hoosiers are heading into a game where every healthy body matters, and the final lineup could shape how much room they have to compete with USC. [Read more 🡒]
Indianas Quarterback Uncertainty Just Got Bigger Before USC
Indianas quarterback situation got a little murkier this week as Curt Cignetti sorted through a room already under scrutiny ahead of USC. Grant Wilson missed practice because of the flu, while Josh Hoover was held out for injury recovery, leaving the Hoosiers to lean more heavily on backup Jacob Bell, who drew praise from Cignetti for the way he handled his work on the field.
The timing is less than ideal with USC looming, especially with Cignetti already pointing to the Trojans offense and defense as a major test. Indiana also has some cleanup to do in other areas, including special teams, which adds another layer to a week that was already going to be about finding answers before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
Urban Meyer Just Reignited Indianas CFP Respect Debate
Indianas place in the College Football Playoff conversation took another public hit this week when Urban Meyer weighed in on the rankings, and the former coach did not exactly defend the Hoosiers standing. On FOX, Meyer pointed out that Indiana slid from No. 4 to No. 9 even without playing in Week 10, using the drop as evidence that the committee may have overvalued the Hoosiers early on.
The larger debate around Indiana has only grown louder as Notre Dame and UCLA moved up in the rankings and the Big Ten and Big 12 continue to jockey for playoff representation. Meyers comments fed right into the skepticism around Indianas rsum, with unimpressive wins and a shaky strength of schedule becoming the central sticking points in how the Hoosiers are being judged. [Read more 🡒]