When No. 1 Ohio State and No.
2 Indiana square off this Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game, the stakes are sky-high - and not just for the conference crown. The College Football Playoff selection committee will be watching closely, with the outcome potentially shaping the final four that will be revealed Sunday afternoon.
Both teams enter the title game undefeated, sitting atop ESPN’s Football Power Index, and have built strong playoff résumés throughout the season. That’s what makes this matchup so intriguing. It’s not just about who wins; it’s about how the committee interprets the result - and how much weight they place on a loss in a conference title game.
Historically, the committee has shown respect for teams that make it to their conference championship. Last year, then-chairman Warde Manuel emphasized that simply reaching the title game carried value, and that a loss in that setting wouldn’t necessarily deal a fatal blow to a team’s playoff hopes. But this time around, with both Indiana and Ohio State in the top two and jockeying for a first-round bye, the margin for error feels razor-thin - and the current committee chair, Hunter Yurachek, isn’t tipping his hand.
“We’re not projecting as a committee what will happen this week,” Yurachek said during a media teleconference Tuesday night. “But I think you can read between the lines that there’s some teams in the top 25 that are in pretty good shape to make the playoff.”
That’s about as close as we’ll get to insight before the games are played. And it leaves the door wide open for interpretation.
Let’s be clear: a loss on Saturday would be the first blemish on either team’s record. And when you stack that up against the one-loss resumes of teams like Oregon or Ole Miss - who aren’t even playing for a conference title this weekend - Indiana and Ohio State still look like top-four material. Their body of work is that strong.
Still, Yurachek didn’t commit to the idea that both teams are playoff locks regardless of the outcome.
“That’s hard to predict without knowing the result of that game and what each of the teams look like in that game,” he said. “We’ll wait until the end of the championship games as they’re played Friday and Saturday, and then we’ll rerank the teams accordingly.”
Translation: It’s not just about whether you lose - it’s about how you lose.
If one team gets blown out or looks completely out of sync, that could open the door for a team sitting just outside the top four to jump in. Think Oregon at No. 5 or Ole Miss at No. 6 - both idle this weekend but lurking. Yurachek confirmed that idle teams can absolutely move based on what happens in the championship games.
“There may be something that happens in a championship game that impacts an idle team,” he said, “whether that’s their strength of schedule or some other datapoint that we use, or there could be a team that suffers a significant loss in a title game.”
That’s the wildcard here. The committee isn’t bound to reward teams just for playing this weekend. If a team stumbles badly, even with a previously perfect record, they could find themselves on the outside looking in - especially if the teams behind them have compelling cases.
But if we’re going off precedent and the metrics, both Indiana and Ohio State appear to be in solid shape. The committee has consistently rewarded teams that make it through the regular season unbeaten and play for a conference title. A close loss in a high-stakes game like this one likely won’t tank either team’s playoff chances - but again, the committee will be watching not just the result, but the performance.
“Each of the championship games will just give us another game and another datapoint,” Yurachek said, “to evaluate the teams that participate in those championship games and the idle teams around them.”
So buckle up. Saturday night isn’t just about hoisting a Big Ten trophy - it’s about securing a place in the national title chase. And while both Indiana and Ohio State have done more than enough to earn their spot at the table, the final word belongs to the committee.