Indiana men's basketball is gearing up for a crucial home game against Northwestern, with only two home games left this season. The Wildcats, sitting at 3-13 in conference play, have shown they can surprise teams, as evidenced by their road win at USC-a place where Indiana stumbled. In the unpredictable Big Ten, no opponent should be underestimated.
Currently, Indiana stands at 8-8 in conference action, and a win here is vital for their tournament aspirations. Despite recent setbacks with heavy losses at Illinois and Purdue, there's still optimism. Bart Torvik projects an 89% chance for Indiana to make the tournament, and all 121 brackets on Bracket Matrix include them in the field.
Let's dive into what makes Northwestern tick:
Northwestern's offense, under Coach Darian DeVries, is known for its high assist rate, ranking fourth nationally with 65.3% of their baskets assisted. This could catch Indiana off guard if their defense isn't dialed in.
However, Northwestern's defense struggles, allowing a 61.2% assist rate, one of the highest in the country. Indiana should look to capitalize on this, potentially giving more court time to Tayton Conerway, who led the team in assists off the bench last game.
Coach DeVries might also consider spreading the offensive load beyond Lamar Wilkerson to boost secondary scoring.
Size-wise, Northwestern is at a disadvantage compared to Indiana, with only one regular player over 6’7”-center Arrinten Page at 6’11”. This height difference could open up scoring opportunities in the paint and help Indiana regain their rebounding edge. While both teams have similar offensive rebounding rates, Northwestern's defense concedes more offensive boards, a gap Indiana should exploit.
Nick Martinelli is the standout player for Northwestern, averaging 22.3 points per game. He's the focal point of their offense, used on over 28% of possessions, and is a sharp 43.5% shooter from three, though he only attempts 3.3 per game. Indiana will need to keep a close eye on him defensively.
Jayden Reid is another key player for Northwestern, acting as the main facilitator with 4.9 assists per game and contributing 10.1 points per game. He handles over 60% of the point guard duties, making his matchup with Conor Enright crucial for Indiana's defense. Enright, lacking the height to guard Martinelli, will need to focus on containing Reid.
This game is a must-win for Indiana, and understanding these dynamics will be key to securing a victory and keeping their tournament hopes alive.