Indiana gets its bye week reset and walks straight into one of the biggest tests left on the schedule.
The No. 4 Hoosiers, sitting at 8-1, will host No.
20 USC on Saturday at Memorial Stadium in a top-20 matchup set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Both teams are fresh off open dates, and this one brings a little extra edge with USC making its first trip to Bloomington since joining the Big Ten.
It’s also a matchup with a long, lopsided history. Indiana has never beaten USC, and the Trojans have taken all four meetings between the programs, including a 14-3 win in the 1967 Rose Bowl. The last time they played was in 1982.
USC arrives with a résumé that includes a win over Ohio State and another notable victory at Penn State. The Trojans’ two losses came at home against Oregon and at Wisconsin.
Fifth-year head coach Lincoln Riley has the group moving on offense, and the numbers show it. USC is tied with Indiana at No. 39 nationally in scoring offense at 32.4 points per game.
The passing game is the real engine, ranking No. 12 at 294.4 yards per game, while the run game sits at No. 107 with 129.3 yards per game.
Riley brought in veteran coach Gary Patterson to run the defense this offseason. Patterson spent 22 years as the head coach at TCU and most recently worked in consulting roles at Texas and Baylor.
USC’s defense has been more uneven, ranking No. 66 in scoring defense at 24.2 points allowed per game. The Trojans have been more vulnerable through the air, where they sit No. 80, than against the run, where they rank No.
PFF has USC at No. 5 on offense and No. 85 on defense.
The quarterback Indiana has to deal with is Jayden Maiava, who may be the toughest passer the Hoosiers have seen all season. The 6-foot-4 Hawaiian has completed 66.9% of his throws for 2,524 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has not been much of a threat as a runner, with 14 carries for 35 yards, not counting the 12 sacks he has taken, though he does have two rushing touchdowns.
For now, the market and the models lean toward Indiana. As of Monday morning, the Hoosiers were listed as about a 7.5-point favorite after the line opened around 10.
ESPN’s FPI gives Indiana an 78.2% chance to win and ranks the Hoosiers No. 8, with USC at No. 16. ESPN’s SP+ model is also on Indiana, projecting a 31-20 win and giving the Hoosiers a 74% chance to come out on top.
The early weather call for Saturday in Bloomington points to a partly cloudy day, with 9 mph winds, a 6% chance of rain, a high of 47 degrees and a low of 26.
There’s more to come on this one in the days ahead.
In Other News...
Indiana Faces An Early Test Against A Team That Keeps Pushing Back
Indianas first real measuring-stick game of the season arrives quickly, with Syracuse bringing a 2-0 record into Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for a matchup that should tell a lot about both teams. The Orange are already under the direction of first-year coach Gerry McNamara, a familiar name in Syracuse circles after a decorated playing career there and a run of school records that still hangs over the program.
For Indiana, the challenge is less about the venue than the style of opponent. Syracuse has already shown it can keep games moving in its direction early in the year, and the historical backdrop between these programs only adds a little more edge to a nonconference meeting that has enough intrigue to feel bigger than a routine November date. The Hoosiers get a chance to answer some early questions, while Syracuse gets another shot to show McNamaras version of the Orange can travel and compete with a high-major team on a neutral floor. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Gave Indiana A Huge New Big Ten Opening
Ohio States slide in the AP Top 25 has created a fresh opening in the Big Ten race, and Indiana has every reason to pay attention. The Buckeyes landed at No. 21 after their third loss of the season, their lowest ranking since 2014, a drop that reflects how much ground they have lost in a conference picture they once seemed to control.
For Indiana, the bigger takeaway is what this does to the leagues path to the College Football Playoff. Ohio States hopes now appear to hinge on winning the Big Ten Championship, and even then the Buckeyes no longer control their own fate. It is a notable shift for a program that has been a regular playoff presence under Ryan Day, and it opens the door a little wider for everyone else in the conference. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Receivers Could Expose A Growing USC Concern
Indianas passing game has a chance to put USCs secondary under real stress, especially with the way the broader receiver landscape is shaping up around college football. The article points to a wave of standout wideouts and defensive backs around the country, from KJ Duff and Evan Stewart to Dakorien Moore and Jeremiah Smith, while also noting how players such as Charlie Becker, Nick Marsh, Jontez Williams, Chasen Johnson and Rock Hill are influencing their teams and draft stock. For Indiana, that backdrop matters because the Hoosiers are facing a matchup where receiver play could become the cleanest path to an edge.
USCs secondary is already drawing attention for the challenges it may have to absorb in the games ahead, and Indianas receivers fit the profile of a group that can exploit any softness there. The piece frames the matchup through recent performances, roles and coaching perspective, with the Trojans defensive backfield carrying the burden of proving it can hold up against a quality receiving corps. If Indiana can force USC into uncomfortable coverage decisions, this could become one of those games where the Hoosiers wideouts do more than just move the chains. [Read more 🡒]