Indiana basketball made a statement last week-and not a quiet one, either. The Hoosiers pulled off back-to-back wins that could end up defining their season, knocking off Purdue at home and following it up with a gritty road victory over UCLA. Those are Indiana’s first two Quad 1 wins of the season, and they couldn’t have come at a better time.
But momentum is a fragile thing in college basketball, and Indiana couldn’t carry that wave into Tuesday night’s matchup at USC. That game was another Quad 1 opportunity, and the loss means the Hoosiers remain stuck at 2-8 in those high-value matchups. For a team trying to build a tournament résumé, that’s a number that needs serious work.
There’s a bit of good news buried in the chaos: Minnesota’s upset win over Michigan State gave the Gophers a boost in the NET rankings, which in turn upgraded Indiana’s earlier loss in Minneapolis to a Quad 1 defeat. That’s not exactly the kind of résumé booster you celebrate, but it does slightly shift the math. Indiana now sits at 2-8 in Quad 1 games and 1-0 in Quad 2.
Here’s where things get real: Indiana has eight regular-season games left to make its case for March. Four of those are currently classified as Quad 1 matchups, and two of them-on the road at Illinois and Purdue-are the kind of uphill climbs that few teams come away from with wins.
That makes this Saturday’s game against Wisconsin a big one. It’s the first of Indiana’s two remaining Quad 1 home games, and it’s the more manageable of the two (the other being Michigan State). If the Hoosiers want to avoid sweating it out on Selection Sunday, this is a must-have.
Analytics models are split on how this all plays out. Bart Torvik’s projections give Indiana an 89.1% chance to make the NCAA Tournament, assuming they take care of business at home and finish 11-9 in Big Ten play. That path would likely land them as an 8 or 9 seed-right in the thick of the middle-tier bracket chaos.
KenPom, however, sees a slightly rockier road. That model has Indiana finishing 10-10 in the conference, with a projected home loss to Michigan State. The difference between 11-9 and 10-10 might not seem massive, but it could be the difference between a comfortable Selection Sunday and one filled with nail-biting.
If Indiana can’t get past Wisconsin, the path gets narrow. They’d likely need to steal a win at either Illinois or Purdue-two of the toughest environments in the Big Ten-and also beat Michigan State at home. That’s a tall order for any team, especially one still trying to find consistency.
And while 10-10 in the Big Ten doesn’t automatically punch a ticket to the NIT, it would crank up the pressure heading into the Big Ten Tournament. And let’s be honest: that’s not exactly been a happy hunting ground for Indiana in recent years.
What adds another layer to this season is the context. Normally, a first-year head coach missing the NCAA Tournament might get a pass.
But this isn’t a rebuild. This roster was built to win now.
There’s experience, talent, and urgency baked into this group, and that makes the stakes feel a little higher.
No matter how this season ends, Darian DeVries is going to face a major roster overhaul in the offseason. A large chunk of his offensive production is likely to move on, and that means the clock is already ticking on the next phase of the program. But a trip to the NCAA Tournament-especially in Year 1-would go a long way in showing recruits and transfers alike that Indiana is a program on solid footing under this new staff.
The next few weeks will tell the story. For now, the Hoosiers are in the mix. But if they want to stay there, it starts with taking care of business on Saturday.