Indiana’s NCAA Tournament Push Heating Up as Hoosiers Climb Bracketology Ranks
Buckle up, Hoosier fans-this final stretch of the season is shaping up to be a high-stakes sprint to March. After a rocky start in Big Ten play, Indiana seems to be finding its rhythm at just the right time. Under head coach Darian DeVries, the Hoosiers are showing signs of a team that could be peaking when it matters most.
Yes, they’re coming off a tough six-point road loss to USC, but that’s not the kind of defeat that hurts a résumé. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.
That loss falls into the coveted Quad 1 category-a metric the NCAA Selection Committee weighs heavily when evaluating tournament résumés. And with USC looking like a probable tournament team themselves, Indiana’s performance in that game actually helped more than it hurt.
That’s reflected in the latest Bracketology update, where Indiana has climbed from a No. 10 seed to a No. 9.
It’s the third straight update where the Hoosiers have improved their standing, and that’s no small feat. Not long ago, this group was hovering around the cut line.
Now, they’re firmly in the projected field.
As it stands, Indiana would face Utah State in a classic 8-vs-9 matchup in the West Region’s San Diego quadrant. That’s a toss-up game on paper, but the bigger takeaway here is that Indiana’s trajectory is pointing up.
Now, it might seem odd to see a team move up a seed line after a loss, but there’s more going on under the hood. That early-season road loss to Minnesota?
It’s now been upgraded to a Quad 1 game thanks to the Gophers’ improved NET ranking. That means Indiana has just one Quad 2 game on its entire schedule-against Washington-and that’s a strong data point when Selection Sunday rolls around.
What’s Left on the Table?
With eight regular-season games remaining, Indiana has a clear path to solidifying its tournament spot-but there’s little room for error. The Hoosiers still have four Quad 1 games, two Quad 2 matchups, and two Quad 3 contests left.
The good news? Five of those eight games are at home.
But only one of those home games-March 1 against Michigan State-falls into the Quad 1 category. The rest?
Winnable, but must-win. That includes:
- Feb. 7 vs. Wisconsin
- Feb. 9 vs. Oregon
- Feb. 24 vs. Northwestern
- March 4 vs. Minnesota
Drop one of those, and Indiana will likely need to make up ground by pulling off a road upset or making noise in the Big Ten tournament. That March 4 game against Minnesota could end up being a make-or-break moment, especially if both teams are hovering near the bubble.
What Needs to Happen?
The formula is pretty straightforward: win the games you’re supposed to win, and don’t let any Quad 3 losses sneak onto the résumé. DeVries and his staff can’t count on any significant NET movement from the remaining opponents, so Indiana’s fate will be decided on the court, not in the rankings.
If the Hoosiers can get to 19 regular-season wins, that should be enough to punch their ticket. That would likely include a few more quality wins and would give the committee a solid body of work to consider.
But it starts now-with a pivotal matchup against Wisconsin at Assembly Hall. A win there keeps the momentum going and sets the tone for the final stretch.
A loss? Well, that puts Indiana right back in the danger zone.
The good news for Hoosier fans? This team is trending in the right direction.
The schedule is manageable, the résumé is improving, and the opportunity is right in front of them. Now it’s just about finishing the job.