Indiana’s 2026 schedule comes with the kind of numbers that make you stop and look twice.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Hoosiers favored in 10 of their 12 regular-season games, a sign that Curt Cignetti’s program is being treated like one of the Big Ten’s heavyweights after last season’s 16-0 run and national title. Even with Heisman Trophy winner and first overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza gone to the Las Vegas Raiders, the computers still like Indiana to handle most of what’s ahead.
The season opens with a pair of lopsided projections. Indiana is given a 98.7% chance to beat North Texas and a 99% chance against Howard.
Western Kentucky follows, and ESPN gives the Hoosiers a 97.6% shot there. Northwestern is next at 95%, then Rutgers at 92.9%, and Nebraska at 81%.
The first major test on the board is Ohio State, and that’s where the numbers finally tilt the other way. ESPN gives Indiana a 39.2% chance to win that matchup, with the Buckeyes at 60.8%. For comparison, Ohio State is also listed as the underdog at Texas this year, with FPI giving the Buckeyes a 46.3% chance in that game.
Indiana’s trip to Michigan is projected much more favorably, with the Hoosiers at 65.5% and the Wolverines at 34.5%. Still, there’s a long history working against Indiana there: the Hoosiers have not won in Ann Arbor since beating Michigan 27-20 in 1967.
After that comes Minnesota, where Indiana is a heavy favorite at 95.6%, before another intriguing matchup with USC. ESPN gives the Hoosiers a 77.3% chance in that one, and the note attached is hard to miss: Indiana has never beaten USC, going 0-4 all-time against the Trojans.
Washington rounds out the regular-season slate at 76.2% for Indiana, and the finale against Purdue is the most one-sided number of the bunch at 96.1%. ESPN also pointed out that 3.9% may be generous for Purdue, given that Indiana has outscored the Boilermakers 122-3 over the last two years.
ESPN’s broader 2025 projections also paint a strong picture for Indiana. The Hoosiers are listed at 10.1-2.3, with a 9.5% chance to finish 13-0 and win the Big Ten. The computers give Indiana a 99.4% chance to win at least six games, a 57.0% shot to make the College Football Playoff, a 12.8% chance to reach the national championship game, and a 6.6% chance to win it all.
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