ESPN’s latest preseason numbers still like Indiana a lot, even if they don’t put the Hoosiers at the very top.
Curt Cignetti’s team checks in at No. 6 in ESPN’s new Football Power Index for 2026, with an FPI of 23.1. That makes Indiana the third-highest ranked Big Ten team in the model, behind Ohio State at No. 1 with a 28.7 FPI and Oregon at No. 4 with a 25.3.
Texas sits at No. 2, Notre Dame at No. 3 and Georgia at No.
The projection translates to a 10-2 regular-season record when rounded down from decimals. ESPN also rates Indiana’s 2026 slate as the No. 33 toughest schedule in the country and the 11th-hardest in the Big Ten.
The Hoosiers’ other preseason odds from ESPN are strong across the board: a 57.0 percent chance to make the College Football Playoffs, an 18.7 percent chance to win the Big Ten, a 12.8 percent chance to reach the national championship game, a 9.5 percent chance to go undefeated and a 6.6 percent chance to win the national title.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is built around “a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component.” The preseason version is “made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure,” with the older seasons carrying less weight as the year goes on.
The Hoosiers also stack up well in another major analytic model. ESPN and Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Indiana at No. 5 nationally, with the No. 9 offense, No. 6 defense and No. 22 special teams.
“Indiana is a damn miracle,” Connelly wrote. “It isn't supposed to be possible to flip from 9-27 over three seasons to 27-2 over two.
It isn't supposed to be possible for a school from outside the class of well-established blue bloods to roll to a national title. It isn't supposed to be possible for a staff to find as much of a scouting-and-development advantage as Cignetti and coordinators Mike Shanahan and Bryant Haines have of late.”
Connelly’s SP+ also projects Indiana with the No. 31 strength of schedule nationally and No. 12 in the Big Ten. The model gives the Hoosiers an average win total of 9.9 in 12 regular-season games, along with a 99.9 percent chance to get to six wins or more and a 32.8 percent chance to reach 11 or more wins. Indiana’s average Big Ten win total comes out to 7.0 in nine conference games.
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Curt Cignetti Just Reached A New Level Of National Spotlight
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The appearance is another sign of how far Cignettis profile has climbed in a short time, with his success drawing attention from outside the usual college football circles. He has already done other media and promotional work tied to the achievement, and this latest project adds another layer to a story that keeps expanding as Indianas title season continues to resonate. [Read more 🡒]