ESPN’s updated Football Power Index has Indiana in a familiar spot: respected, but not at the very top of the national pile.
With the 2026 season getting closer, the Hoosiers check in sixth in the model’s championship odds, behind Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Georgia. Ohio State leads the way with an FPI score of 28.7, while Indiana sits at 23.1.
That FPI number is more than just a ranking. ESPN uses it as a measure of how many points a team is above or below average, and it feeds directly into the network’s week-to-week game projections.
For Indiana, the model is optimistic in plenty of places. It projects 10.1 wins, gives IU a 9.5% shot at going 12-0, and says the Hoosiers have a 99.4% chance to reach bowl eligibility with six wins.
The postseason picture is also strong. FPI gives Indiana an 18.7% chance to win the Big Ten, a 57% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 12.8% chance to reach the national title game and a 6.6% chance to repeat as champions.
Indiana’s 2026 strength of schedule comes in at No. 33 in the model, with 10 Big Ten teams carrying tougher slates.
The Hoosiers’ schedule includes North Texas (90), Howard (N/A), Western Kentucky (86), Northwestern (60), at Rutgers (67), at Nebraska (30), Ohio State (1), at Michigan (15), Minnesota (63), USC (13), at Washington (26) and Purdue (71).
Within the Big Ten, FPI places Indiana sixth behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan and Penn State. The rest of the league follows with Iowa, Washington, Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA, Michigan State, Rutgers and Purdue.
ESPN says FPI was created in 2013 to measure team strength and forecast results for the rest of the season. The model leans on 20,000 simulations, current results and the remaining schedule.
Its preseason formula is built from four parts: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure. ESPN says prior performance is the biggest driver, with the most recent season carrying the most weight.
Returning starters matter next, especially quarterbacks. Recruiting is included through ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele, though ESPN describes it as a small piece of the overall formula.
Coaching tenure is used mainly to account for the effect of a new head coach, with ratings nudging slightly toward the mean when a change is made.
And if recent history is any guide, the preseason version of the model has had a hard time reading Indiana lately.
In Other News...
Respected IU Board Member Walks Away As Bigger Concerns Grow
James Fielding, an Indiana University alumnus and three-term member of the IU Foundation board, is stepping away after deciding not to seek a fourth term, a move that lands at a sensitive moment for the university. Fielding said his concerns have grown around how the administration has handled questions from the board, along with the broader pressures now shaping higher education, and he pointed to frustrations over diversity and inclusion efforts as part of that unease.
Fielding also tied his departure to the shifting political climate around IU governance, where state actions have altered who holds influence inside the universitys leadership structure. Even as he leaves the board, he said he plans to keep supporting IU through other philanthropic channels, a sign that his break is with the institutions direction rather than the school itself. [Read more 🡒]
Trevor Manhertz Just Gave IU Fans An Early Reason To Watch
Trevor Manhertz has already spent more than a month around Indiana, and the early read on the 6-foot-8 forward is the kind Hoosier fans tend to like. As the third commitment in IUs 2026 class, he has been getting a head start on college life while the team gets ready for its trip to Lima, Peru, for the FISU America Games, and he spent part of a recent media session talking through the adjustment, the staff around him and the way he sees his own game fitting in.
Manhertz said the biggest change so far has been the physicality of college basketball, but he also sounded encouraged by the support system he has found on campus. He pointed to the coaching staff and to teammates such as Trent Sisley and Markus Burton as people helping him settle in, and the upcoming international run should give him and IU an early chance to build chemistry in a real game setting before the seasons bigger questions arrive. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Recruiting Momentum Is Starting To Take Shape This July
Indianas first July evaluation period is already giving Darian DeVries and his staff a chance to get around and see the next wave of targets in person. The Hoosiers were at the adidas 3SSB event, where they took in a busy slate of games and continued the early work of building out relationships with prospects across multiple classes, a process that matters even more with a new staff trying to establish itself quickly.
The trip also included a look at Indiana commit Chase Branham, giving the Hoosiers a live check on a player already in the fold while the rest of the board keeps coming into focus. With DeVries and his assistants expected to keep moving from event to event through the evaluation period, the bigger question is how many of those in-person sightings turn into real traction once the summer circuit settles down. [Read more 🡒]