ESPN’s matchup predictor is already painting a pretty bold picture for Indiana’s 2026 football season.
Built off the outlet’s Football Power Index, which has the Hoosiers ranked No. 6 entering the year, the predictor is live on each of IU’s 2026 Gamecast pages and gives Indiana a clear edge in most of its games. The raw numbers point to an 11-1 season for Curt Cignetti in year three, though those projections will shift as the schedule plays out.
The early slate looks heavily tilted toward Indiana. ESPN gives the Hoosiers a 98.2% chance to beat North Texas in Game 1, followed by a 99% shot against Howard in Game 2 and a 97.6% chance versus Western Kentucky in Game 3. The next stretch still favors IU, with a 95% chance against Northwestern and a 92.9% chance against Rutgers.
The first real dip comes in Game 6, where Indiana is listed at 81% against Nebraska. Then the numbers swing sharply in Game 7, when Ohio State is given a 60.8% chance to win and Indiana sits at 39.2%.
After that, the model sees a better path for the Hoosiers. Indiana is at 65.5% against Michigan, 95.6% against Minnesota, 77.3% against USC, 76.2% against Washington and 96.1% against Purdue to close the regular season.
The predictor is not static, either. It changes as the season develops, and ESPN pointed to Indiana’s 2025 trip to Penn State as an example: the Hoosiers were given only a 17.3% chance to win before the season, then an 82.7% chance the week of the game.
For now, FPI gives Indiana an 18.7% chance to win the Big Ten, a 57% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 12.8% chance to reach the national title game and a 6.6% chance to repeat as champions.
In Other News...
Indiana Just Won A Recruiting Battle Hoosiers Fans Never Expected
For years, Alabama recruiting was the kind of machine that made every other program measure itself in the mirror. Nick Sabans final five classes at Tuscaloosa finished no lower than second nationally, a run that helped define the standard in college football and made the Crimson Tide a constant presence at the top of the board.
This cycle has looked very different under Kalen DeBoer, with Alabama sitting 32nd nationally and still trying to regain the old momentum. Against that backdrop, Indiana landing the nations top-ranked wide receiver recruit stands out even more, especially with the Hoosiers beating out Alabama in a battle few would have expected to see go their way. [Read more 🡒]
Curt Cignetti Just Pulled Off The Recruiting Win Indiana Never Gets
Curt Cignetti has spent more than two years changing the way Indiana football is viewed, and the latest sign of that shift came on the recruiting trail. Monshun Sales, a highly regarded wide receiver from Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis, has committed to the Hoosiers, giving the program a major in-state win and adding another piece to a run that has already produced a remarkable 27-2 record under Cignetti.
Sales is ranked by Rivals as the No. 7 overall player in the 2027 cycle, which is the kind of profile Indiana has rarely been in position to land. For a program that has spent so long fighting for traction with elite prospects, the commitment says as much about the staffs momentum as it does about the player himself, and it leaves one obvious question hanging over the next phase of this rebuild: how many more of these battles can Indiana now expect to win? [Read more 🡒]
The 5 Portal Moves That Built Curt Cignetti's Indiana Powerhouse
Curt Cignettis rise at Indiana has been built as much in the transfer portal as on the field, and the results have been hard to miss over two seasons. The Hoosiers have gone from trying to reset the programs ceiling to stacking impact additions at quarterback, receiver, the offensive line and in the secondary, with Fernando Mendoza, D'Angelo Ponds, Elijah Sarratt, Pat Coogan and Roman Hemby all becoming central pieces of the turnaround.
What makes the group so notable is how quickly it changed Indianas profile and how many of those moves turned into real football value, not just offseason buzz. Some of those players have already moved on to the NFL, and the larger question now is how Cignetti keeps that pipeline going after using the portal to help build a team that reached the sports highest stage. [Read more 🡒]