With just over 40 days to go until Selection Sunday, the tension around the NCAA Tournament bubble is starting to feel very real. For some programs, the path to the Field of 68 is becoming clearer. For others, every possession, every defensive switch, every late-game free throw is starting to feel like it could make or break their season.
This past week gave us a clearer picture of who’s trending up-and who’s slipping at the wrong time. Let’s dive into the biggest bubble winners and losers from a critical stretch of games.
Winner: Indiana Hoosiers
No team helped its case more this week than Indiana. Darian DeVries’ squad pulled off a statement win over in-state rival Purdue-a top-tier team that doesn’t lose many-and followed that up with a gritty, double-overtime road victory against fellow bubble contender UCLA. That’s the kind of week that can flip a season.
After a rough stretch that saw them drop four straight, the Hoosiers have now rattled off three wins in a row and are starting to look like a team finding its identity at the right time. They’re not out of the woods yet, but they’ve moved to the right side of the bubble for now. And with two more resume-building opportunities on deck-at USC and then back home against Wisconsin-Indiana has a real shot to solidify its standing.
Loser: Ohio State Buckeyes
It’s been a season of “almosts” for Ohio State. They’ve hovered near the bubble for weeks now, but a double-digit loss at Wisconsin over the weekend didn’t do them any favors. The Buckeyes have done what they’re supposed to do against lesser opponents, but they’re still searching for that signature win-the kind that jumps off the page on Selection Sunday.
There’s still time to change that narrative. Ohio State’s upcoming schedule includes matchups with Virginia, Michigan State, Purdue, and a rivalry showdown with Michigan at home this Sunday. Every one of those games is a chance to make a statement, but the regular-season finale against Indiana is shaping up to be a potential make-or-break moment.
Winner: Wisconsin Badgers
On the flip side of that Ohio State loss was a big win for Wisconsin-a team that’s quietly heating up. After a rocky start to the season, Greg Gard’s Badgers have found their rhythm, winning seven of their last eight games. They also picked up a win over Minnesota this past week, continuing to stack victories at just the right time.
Yes, the recent stretch has come against some of the Big Ten’s lighter competition, but the road ahead gets tougher. Wisconsin is about to run a gauntlet with games against Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa. That said, they’ve already got a major feather in their cap: a marquee win over Michigan that stands as one of the most impressive victories on any bubble team’s resume.
Loser: Miami Hurricanes
Miami’s week was a mixed bag-and not the kind that helps you in March. The Hurricanes beat Stanford but followed it up with a loss to Cal as double-digit favorites. That one stings, especially since Cal is also hanging around the bubble.
Jai Lucas’ first season started strong, with a 10-game win streak that stretched from late November into early January. But the shine has worn off.
Miami has now dropped three of its last five, including a damaging Quad 3 loss to Florida State. The bigger issue?
The ACC isn’t offering much help this year. With so many conference opponents unlikely to boost their resume, the Hurricanes are in a spot where even one misstep could cost them dearly.
Loser: Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia had a chance to build on last year’s NCAA Tournament appearance and looked poised to do just that after starting 14-2. But January hasn’t been kind. The Bulldogs have now lost three straight, including a 20-point drubbing at Texas and a 15-point home loss to Texas A&M.
They’ll get a bit of a breather before facing LSU, and that game suddenly feels like a must-win. The Bulldogs are still in the field for now, but with the SEC bubble picture incredibly crowded-teams jostling between the No. 4 and No. 10 seed lines-there’s no margin for error. Protecting home court and avoiding bad losses will be critical the rest of the way.
Final Word
This is the time of year when the bubble starts to tighten, and every game carries postseason weight. For teams like Indiana and Wisconsin, momentum is building.
For others like Ohio State, Miami, and Georgia, the pressure is mounting. The margin for error is shrinking, and the opportunities to make a statement are dwindling.
Buckle up-February basketball is here, and the bubble drama is just getting started.