ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky is taking a cautious stance on Fernando Mendoza as the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Despite Mendoza's impressive Heisman Trophy win and leading Indiana to a national championship, Orlovsky's early film review has left him less than convinced.
Breaking down the first five games of Mendoza's season, Orlovsky noted that while there are flashes of brilliance, the overall performance hasn't met his expectations. He highlighted Mendoza's heavy reliance on run-pass options and back shoulder fades, often benefiting from clean pockets that minimized adversity. Orlovsky expressed concerns about the lack of high-level throws over the middle and instances where Mendoza opted to run when unnecessary.
“If you take away the RPOs and those back-shoulder fades, there’s just not a ton of big-time throws,” Orlovsky pointed out. “His decision-making is top-notch - that’s his superpower.
He avoids negative plays. But when you’re talking about the first overall pick, I’m just not there.”
Comparatively, Orlovsky found Ty Simpson’s performance at Alabama to be more impressive, although he acknowledged that he hasn't completed his full evaluation of Mendoza's season.
Despite Orlovsky's reservations, Mendoza is still widely regarded as the top prospect on most draft boards. The Las Vegas Raiders, holding the No. 1 pick, are expected to target a franchise quarterback, and Mendoza fits that need. New Raiders coach Klint Kubiak praised Mendoza’s winning mentality, emphasizing his national championship victory as a key attribute.
Orlovsky’s critique introduces a layer of uncertainty to what seemed like a clear decision at the top of the draft. Whether his insights will influence others remains to be seen.
As for Mendoza, he's decided to skip throwing at the Combine, opting instead to showcase his skills at Indiana’s pro day on April 1.