Dan Orlovsky has stirred the pot with his recent evaluation of Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Alabama's Ty Simpson. During his appearance on "Get Up," Orlovsky, a former Detroit Lions QB, expressed his preference for Simpson as the top QB prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft over Mendoza. He reinforced this stance on Pat McAfee's show, mentioning that only a couple of general managers disagreed with him out of the 12-15 he texted.
This perspective goes against the grain. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Mendoza is the top overall prospect, while Simpson is ranked 35th. So, let's dive into the stats to see if Orlovsky's take holds water.
When it comes to traditional stats, Mendoza shines. Last season, he led the FBS in passing touchdowns with 41 over 16 games, ranked fourth in yards per attempt at 9.3, and topped the passer rating chart with 182.9.
Simpson, on the other hand, had 28 TD passes in 15 games, ranked 53rd in yards per attempt at 7.5, and was 41st in passer rating at 145.2. Additionally, Simpson was sacked more often (28 times) compared to Mendoza (25 times).
The only area where Simpson edges out Mendoza is interceptions, with five to Mendoza's six.
But is the debate really over? Not quite. Advanced stats offer more insight, particularly regarding performance under pressure-a key area where Orlovsky favors Simpson.
Orlovsky highlighted Simpson's ability to deliver "real NFL throws" under pressure. Yet, the numbers tell a different story. Simpson's passer rating dropped significantly from 118 to 65.7 under pressure last season, whereas Mendoza's dipped from 140.2 to 98.3-less severe than Simpson's decline.
Simpson did excel in making big-time throws (BTTs), a metric by Pro Football Focus that measures high-difficulty, high-value passes. He tied for first with 30 BTTs among 168 FBS QBs, while Mendoza tied for 19th with 23.
For those questioning Mendoza's clutch performance, his leadership in Indiana's 27-21 victory over Miami in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game speaks volumes.
While Simpson can deliver crucial throws, his consistency across all levels of the field is lacking. Their completion percentages, especially in terms of air yards, highlight this disparity.
Ultimately, a quarterback's success in the NFL often hinges on their landing spot. However, Mendoza appears to be the more pro-ready prospect.
The Las Vegas Raiders, holding the first pick in the draft, should stick with Mendoza as their QB1. The stats make a compelling case for Mendoza, and the Raiders would be wise not to second-guess themselves as the draft approaches.