Indiana has already gone from long shot to national champion, but Paul Finebaum isn’t buying a repeat in 2026.
The Hoosiers are riding the best stretch in program history after going 11-2 in 2024, then putting together a 16-0 season in 2025 to win the school’s first national title. Curt Cignetti has been the driver behind it all, turning Indiana into a powerhouse almost overnight after arriving from James Madison, where he had just guided the Dukes to an 11-1 season in 2023.
That kind of turnaround matters, especially at a program that had gone 2-10, 4-8 and 3-9 in the three seasons before Cignetti took over. But even with all that momentum, Finebaum says the Hoosiers’ path back to the top is far from guaranteed.
“Sometimes you get caught up in narratives,” Finebaum said. “I think that was my fault last year.
I make no bones about it, Augie. I didn't buy the Indiana story.
I felt like they had not done enough that they played such a weak preseason schedule. They had a fortunate run that I thought would eventually get to them...
I don't believe they're going to win the national championship again, but I think they're certainly very capable of making a run.”
Indiana’s roster turnover is a big part of that skepticism. The Hoosiers lost Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, along with defensive standouts such as cornerback D'Angelo Ponds. They also come into 2026 tied for No. 51 in returning production at 56%, which means Cignetti had plenty to patch together.
He attacked that job in the transfer portal and finished with the No. 8 class. The headliner is former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover, who has thrown for 7,421 yards, 56 touchdowns and 24 interceptions over the last two seasons while completing 66.2% of his passes.
That gives Indiana a real chance to stay in the national conversation, even if repeating as champions is a different mountain altogether. Last year’s title team was built around an elite quarterback and a dominant defense, and both of those areas will look different in 2026.
Still, Cignetti’s track record is hard to ignore. He’s made a habit of flipping programs fast, and Indiana’s portal work gives the Hoosiers a foundation to stay dangerous.
Finebaum may be out on another title, but even he stopped short of writing them off completely. If Hoover settles in, Indiana could still be right there in the College Football Playoff mix.
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