The College Football Playoff picture got a lot messier after USC knocked off Ohio State, and the latest bracket projection reflects just how much movement came out of a chaotic final weekend in October.
At the top, Georgia still sits at No. 1 in the projection and remains the favorite to win the SEC after rolling past Florida. The Bulldogs still have a major test ahead, though, with a road trip to Ole Miss next Saturday likely to tell us plenty more.
The projected ACC champion also stayed unbeaten with a win at North Carolina, but there are real questions about whether that defense can keep this run going. The projection still has that team finishing perfect, though the committee could still prefer a one-loss SEC champion.
Utah kept its grip on the Big 12 race by piling up 42 first-half points at Cincinnati and cruising to another win. The Utes are still in first place, but that spot will be under heavy pressure when they face one-loss rival BYU in the Holy War.
The biggest shakeup came in the Big Ten. After Ohio State’s loss to USC, Indiana moved into the projected conference title spot, even though the Hoosiers needed overtime to get past Minnesota and their offense is still a work in progress.
The Wildcats are projected to reach the SEC championship game before falling to Georgia, which would still be enough to get them into the playoff. For Will Stein in his first season, that would be a strong result.
Ole Miss was idle this week, but its position improved thanks to wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, and even the loss to Kentucky looks better in the current bracket. The Rebels’ next test comes against Alabama, which should clarify things quickly.
UCLA remains unbeaten and could still finish the regular season without a loss, but the projection has the Bruins dropping the Big Ten championship game to Indiana.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is no longer projected to win the Big Ten. The Buckeyes fell from that spot to an at-large berth after the USC loss exposed what the projection calls real structural issues on the roster. It wasn’t just the quarterback change, either; the defense also looked out of sorts against the Trojans.
Texas Tech is back in the Big 12 title game projection after a key win over Arizona, but the Red Raiders are still forecast to lose to Utah in Arlington.
There’s also a path for a three-loss SEC team to sneak into the field. Alabama could fit that profile even with a loss to LSU, as long as it handles the rest of its schedule.
Notre Dame is projected to lose to Miami next week, which would push the Irish to the wrong side of the bubble and open the door for Ole Miss to move in, especially if the Rebels beat Georgia next Saturday.
And at the Group of Six level, Boise State remains the clear standard-bearer, though the committee will be watching closely when the Broncos face Oregon State.
In Other News...
Indiana Heads Into USC Prep With Serious Injury Questions
Indianas win over Minnesota came with a heavy dose of concern, as the Hoosiers were forced to piece together key spots on both sides of the ball after injuries piled up. Starting linebacker Rolijah Hardy was already out because of a back issue before kickoff, and freshmen and backups ended up carrying extra responsibility as the game wore on.
The list grew from there, with quarterback Josh Hoover getting replaced in the second half after taking a hard hit, running back Turbo Richard leaving with a shoulder injury and cornerback A.J. Harris hurt late before limping off the field. With a bye week ahead before USC comes to town, Indiana has some much-needed time to sort through the health of a roster that suddenly has several important questions hanging over it. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Stayed Unbeaten But Exposed A Problem Fans Cant Ignore
Indiana escaped Minnesota 23-16 in overtime in a game that felt far more precarious than the record suggests, surviving a wild finish after both teams drilled 60-yard field goals in the final 22 seconds of regulation. The Hoosiers still found a way to win behind a defense that kept bending without breaking, with Lee Beebe Jr. and Nick Marsh among the players helping steady things when the game tightened late.
Josh Hoovers health concerns forced a halftime change to Grant Wilson, and the quarterback shuffle only sharpened the bigger question hanging over Indianas unbeaten start. The Hoosiers have shown they can win in different ways, but this one also made clear how fragile the offense can look when the plan gets disrupted, leaving plenty for fans to monitor even after the victory. [Read more 🡒]
Indiana Escaped Minnesota But A Bigger Question Just Took Over
Indianas overtime escape at Minnesota had all the ingredients of a Big Ten survival test, from the late drama to the kind of kicking display that can turn a routine finish into a stadium-wide gasp. Both teams traded 60-yard field goals in the final seconds of regulation, then Indiana struck immediately in overtime with a touchdown before holding Minnesota near the goal line to close it out and move to 8-1.
Josh Hoovers night, though, is the part that lingers beyond the final score. He was replaced at halftime because of injury and ineffective play, and the way Indiana navigated the second half only sharpened the question of what comes next at quarterback. For a team still pushing through the heart of its season, the win was huge, but the uncertainty under center may end up mattering just as much. [Read more 🡒]