Illinois heads to Pasadena on Friday with a lot working in its favor and one massive problem waiting on the other sideline: UCLA has been living dangerously well all season.
The Illini are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten, riding a four-game winning streak and carrying their best momentum of the year into a matchup with the conference’s only unbeaten team. UCLA is 9-0 and 6-0 in league play, and the Bruins have hardly left anything to chance. Only one of their wins - a 17-15 result at Oregon - has come by single digits.
That makes this a tough assignment for Illinois, but the path is clear enough. The first thing the Illini have to handle is UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, a backup who has suddenly become a problem.
Last week at Minnesota, he threw for 303 yards on just eight completions. Only two of those completions went for fewer than 25 yards.
That kind of production is exactly why Illinois has to keep explosive plays out of the game.
The Bruins have the kind of talent at the skill positions that can punish a defense if it loses focus, so Illinois can’t afford breakdowns over the top.
On the other side, the Illini don’t need to pretend they’re going to run the ball into a breakthrough. They ran for just 2.9 yards per carry against Nebraska last week, and something similar would not be a disaster here.
The more realistic offensive path is through the air, where Katin Houser and Collin Dixon have already shown they can create real damage. Dixon went for 129 yards and two scores last week, and Illinois will need that connection to show up again.
UCLA’s defense is strong and aggressive, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers. The Bruins lead the country with 27 takeaways, including 17 interceptions and 10 fumbles.
Illinois has protected the ball well all season, with only six turnovers, which ties it for No. 11 nationally in fewest turnovers. That matchup may decide the night.
There’s also the matter of UCLA’s run game. The Bruins average 213.2 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry, and Illinois has been uneven against the run this season. The Illini allow 131.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 56 in the FBS.
Still, the biggest pressure point sits with Houser and the Illinois offense. If the Illini can keep Dieffenbach’s deep shots from landing, they should have a chance to hang around.
But the offense has to do more than manage the game. No team since Purdue in Week 3 has scored three touchdowns against this UCLA defense, and Illinois will probably need to break that streak to come out of Los Angeles with a win.
For Houser and company, the formula is simple: avoid turnovers and stay ahead of the chains. Illinois ranks No. 27 nationally in third-down conversion rate at 45.9 percent, largely because it avoids negative plays and doesn’t constantly face third-and-long. That has to hold up Friday night.
Day and time: Friday at 8 p.m. CT
Venue: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California
TV/Stream: FOX
Listen: WDWS-AM 1400 and WDWS-FM 93.9 (Champaign), WLS-AM 890 (Chicago), Illini Sports Network affiliates (other local markets), Fighting Illini Mobile App, SiriusXM 179/233, SXM App
Illinois and UCLA are tied 6-6 all time. The Illini have won the last meeting, 20-14 in San Francisco on Dec. 31, 2011.
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What makes the result harder to shake is that the defensive effort was strong enough to give Illinois a real chance, but the offense could not match it. The 22-14 final left the Illini searching for answers on how to better protect Houser and create cleaner opportunities moving forward, because a performance like this showed the margin for error is thin when one side of the ball is carrying so much of the load. [Read more 🡒]