Oregon’s playoff door is still cracked open, and Kirk Herbstreit didn’t bother pretending otherwise.
The Ducks showed up at No. 23 in the first College Football Playoff rankings despite sitting on three losses, and that alone was enough to keep them in the conversation. After a week that featured the departure of offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer and Dan Lanning’s comment that he didn’t anticipate starting quarterback Dante Moore returning this season, plenty of people were ready to bury Oregon.
Then came the Halloween win over No. 20 Northwestern, and suddenly the season looked different.
Herbstreit put it plainly.
"They find a way to beat a top 20 team in Northwestern. Now they got Ohio State on the road.
I'm not saying they're going to win. I'm just saying if somehow, some way, they figure out a way to knock off Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington.
I feel like there's a path,"
That path is narrow, but it exists. Oregon’s odds of reaching the CFP are currently around five percent, and a win over No.
12 Ohio State on Saturday at The Horseshoe would change the conversation in a hurry. It would also give the Ducks a third win over a team in the initial CFP rankings and their best victory by the committee’s standards.
The committee’s first Top 25 already gives Oregon two ranked wins: a 41-27 road victory over No. 20 USC and a 34-27 home win over No.
25 Boise State. The Ducks’ only loss to a team in that group was a 17-15 defeat to No.
8 UCLA.
Northwestern, meanwhile, was ranked No. 20 in the AP poll when Oregon beat the Wildcats on Halloween, but the committee left them outside its first Top 25.
"I feel like there's a... a light at the end of the tunnel. Now they have to win these games, which is going to be very tough to do.
But if they did and they finished at 9-3, they're not done. After seeing tonight's ranking, I feel like Oregon's in the mix still,"
That’s the reality for the Ducks now: they have to keep winning, and they have to do it against a brutal closing stretch. Ohio State comes first, followed by Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. If Oregon wants a third straight playoff berth, it likely has to run the table.
There are signs the offense may finally be settling in. In Jay Johnson’s first game as Oregon’s play-caller, Dylan Raiola went 22 of 31 for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern, the first 300-yard passing game of his Oregon career. His biggest throw came in the fourth quarter, when he hit Dakorien Moore for a 75-yard touchdown after Northwestern had trimmed the lead to one.
There was some stability up front as well. Oregon used the same five offensive linemen in back-to-back games for the first time all season, and that kind of continuity could matter in Columbus, where communication will be tested by more than 100,000 fans and a defense giving up just 15.5 points per game.
The defense held up its end against Northwestern, too, limiting the Wildcats to 1-for-8 on third down after halftime. That sort of resistance will be essential against an Ohio State offense averaging 36.6 points per game.
Herbstreit’s bigger point is simple: Oregon still has a route, even if it’s complicated. A Big Ten title would send the Ducks to the playoff automatically, but getting to Indianapolis would require help.
One scenario would have UCLA winning out and handing Illinois and USC another conference loss. Oregon would also want USC to beat No.
4 Indiana on Nov. 14 before falling to UCLA in the regular-season finale.
If enough of the other two-loss Big Ten teams stumble, Oregon could still land in the mix for the second spot in Indianapolis at 7-2. And if the Ducks beat Ohio State, they’d own the head-to-head edge in a two-team tie with the Buckeyes.
So yes, part of this is out of Oregon’s hands. But Saturday gives the Ducks a chance to grab hold of the one thing they can control.
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The agreement also reshapes Illinois schedule in a meaningful way, replacing Missouri on the 2027 and 2028 slates. The Illini also picked up FIU for 2027, and Eastern Illinois will no longer be on that years schedule, leaving Illinois with a nonconference picture that looks a little different and a lot more intriguing. [Read more 🡒]