Keaton Wagler may have gone from under-the-radar recruit to No. 5 overall pick, but the skepticism around him hasn’t gone anywhere.
That part of the story started long before the NBA. Wagler was a 247Sports three-star prospect in high school and wasn’t ranked among the top 200 players nationally.
Illinois and Minnesota were his only two Power Four scholarship offers. He landed at Illinois, where he wasn’t expected to be a headliner, then seized control quickly and never gave it back.
The result was a Final Four run.
Now comes the next twist: even after being drafted No. 5 overall, Wagler isn’t near the top of the NBA Rookie of the Year race in DraftKings’ latest odds. Cameron Boozer opens as the favorite at +240, while Wagler shows up all the way at No. 7 at +2500.
The six players ahead of him are Boozer at +240, AJ Dybantsa at +320, Darryn Peterson at +350, Darius Acuff Jr. at +550, Caleb Wilson at +1000 and Mikel Brown Jr. at +1400. The gap from No. 6 to Wagler is a steep +1100, which makes it clear the market sees this as a six-man race, with Wagler on the outside.
Still, there’s a case to be made that Wagler is in the best spot of the group to make a Rookie of the Year push.
The top names all come with different complications. Boozer could have a crowded spotlight if the Ja Morant trade leaves the Memphis Grizzlies in rough shape and forces defenses to key on him.
Peterson and Wilson are surrounded by a lot of talent in Utah and Chicago, which could limit their touches. Acuff and Brown may have the toughest road of all, since both are on teams described as having no building blocks or veteran leadership.
Wagler’s path looks cleaner. There is a legitimate chance Kawhi Leonard is traded, which would open things up in the Clippers’ backcourt.
Darius Garland is there to help steady things, and Brook Lopez gives the team a real presence in the paint. In that setup, Wagler has a chance to shine.
The odds say otherwise, but the argument here is simple: Wagler’s chip on the shoulder is only getting bigger, and the Rookie of the Year market may be underestimating him.
In Other News...
Illinois Just Landed A Big Recruiting Moment With Elite In-State Guard
Illinois is set to get another look at one of its most important in-state basketball targets, with composite five-star guard Brady Pettigrew planning an unofficial visit to campus. The Class of 2028 prospect has become a major name in the national recruiting conversation, and the Illini have stayed firmly in the mix as his profile has grown. He has already been on campus multiple times, a sign that this is not a fresh relationship but one the staff has been building for a while.
Pettigrews offer list now stretches past 25 Division I programs, with power-conference interest coming from Ohio State, Auburn, Villanova and Florida State, among others. For Illinois, the appeal is obvious: landing a top in-state guard early would be a strong statement about its recruiting reach and its ability to hold homegrown talent. The next steps in Pettigrews timeline could matter just as much as the visit itself, which is why this trip carries extra weight for the Illini. [Read more 🡒]
David Mirkovic Is Becoming The Illini Piece Everything Could Hinge On
David Mirkovics first season at Illinois gave the Illini exactly the sort of frontcourt connector they can build around. He scored inside and out, helped on the glass and even flashed enough playmaking to make the offense less predictable, all while looking like a freshman who could already handle a bigger role than his age suggested.
What makes the storyline so interesting is how much more there still might be there. Illinois got a versatile contributor right away, but the broader conversation around the roster is heading toward which player becomes the most indispensable piece as the next few seasons unfold, and Mirkovic is making a strong case to be at the center of it. [Read more 🡒]