Illinois fans have plenty of reason to feel good in mid-July of 2026. The football program just put together the two winningest back-to-back seasons in Illini history, the men’s basketball team is coming off a Final Four run, and plenty of people are already talking about Brad Underwood’s 2026-27 group as a national title contender.
Still, there’s value in asking the uncomfortable question: what if it goes sideways?
The biggest concern starts with shooting. Illinois has watched a pattern develop with incoming transfers, where three-point efficiency takes a hit once they arrive in Champaign.
Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous went through it in 2024-25, and Zvonimir Ivisic dealt with it this past season. That makes Stefan Vaaks a key swing piece, since Illinois is counting on his shooting.
If his numbers dip from deep, even if only somewhat, the floor could get tighter. The encouraging part is that Vaaks is already a strong shooter, so any drop-off would probably not be dramatic.
And then there’s Andrej Stojakovic, the major storyline. If he can’t raise his three-point percentage, Illinois’ biggest strength could start looking like a weakness, especially if Big Z doesn’t snap out of his slump.
Defense is the other place where things could get messy. Last season, Illinois dealt with stretches of poor attention and defensive lapses, and the question now is who sets the tone on that end.
It won’t be Kylan Boswell, who is now with the Charlotte Hornets. Without a clear defensive leader, it becomes harder to build an identity, and that can spill over into defensive rebounding too, a category that often comes down to effort and energy.
Offensively, though, this roster still looks loaded. Even if the three-point shooting isn’t elite, Illinois should still have plenty of ways to score. It would be surprising if the Illini fell outside the top 15 nationally in offense, and even more surprising if they landed outside the top 10.
The defensive side is where the warning lights flash. Illinois has size everywhere, but that can come with tradeoffs, especially if the group lacks foot speed and perimeter defenders.
If ball-screen defense remains shaky and no one emerges as a reliable on-ball stopper, Underwood’s team could end up in too many shootouts. Last season showed that’s not exactly the safest place to live.
Even so, this is still a team with a ton of talent and a high ceiling. By March, Illinois should be a tough out no matter how the regular season plays out.
But Underwood’s tenure has also included seasons where the Illini left too much on the table, dropped games they shouldn’t have, and exited the NCAA Tournament earlier than expected. All the signs suggest 2026-27 won’t follow that script.
It’s just not impossible.
Overall record: 23-12
Big Ten record: 13-7
NCAA Tournament seed: No. 5
NCAA Tournament finish: Round of 32
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