Illinois is sitting near the top of the college basketball conversation heading into 2026-27, and EvanMiya’s preseason numbers back that up in a big way. The analytical model, unveiled Wednesday by creator Evan Miyakawa, slotted the Illini at No. 3 nationally, behind only Florida at No. 1 and Duke at No. 2.
That lines up with the broad expert consensus, which has Illinois in the top five and, for plenty of observers, in the top three. But the numbers do more than simply confirm the hype. They also paint a picture of a team that could be elite in a very specific way: Brad Underwood’s offense is projected to be the best in the country.
That offensive forecast is no small thing, especially with Keaton Wagler gone. Wagler was the engine of Illinois’ 2025-26 attack before moving on to the Los Angeles Clippers, and the expectation was that the Illini would need time to adjust.
EvanMiya doesn’t buy that dip. The model sees Illinois picking up right where it left off on that end.
The defense is the part that raises the most eyebrows. Illinois finished No. 16 on that side in EvanMiya last season, but this roster has changed.
Kylan Boswell and Ben Humrichous are out, and both were among the team’s better defenders. Wagler, while not a stopper, at least wasn’t a weak link.
Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks also wasn’t brought in as a defensive specialist, and there’s a real chance Illinois leans heavily on freshmen, which always brings some volatility on that end.
Still, there’s a clear reason the projection remains optimistic. This is a huge team, and that size could become a real weapon if it all comes together.
Illinois showed in the NCAA Tournament exactly how that can look when the pieces click. If Underwood gets that end of the floor settled before the calendar flips to January, the Illini could outperform even their No. 8 defensive projection.
Talent is the other big reason Illinois sits this high. Florida has a strong case for the top spot in roster quality, especially if Denzel Aberdeen is eventually cleared.
The Gators have four key pieces from a national championship team, and all four are two years older. Duke can make a case too, with what EvanMiya calls the best backcourt in college basketball from top to bottom and Patrick Ngongba standing out as one of the nation’s top bigs.
Forward Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje is also viewed as the Blue Devils’ next major NBA prospect, though he won’t be eligible until the 2028 draft.
Even with that company, Illinois still comes out ahead of Duke in the ranking. That says plenty about the depth of the Illini’s roster and Underwood’s track record of landing high-level players through the portal, overseas, and the high school ranks.
Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Michigan State checks in at No. 8, Michigan at No.
15, UCLA at No. 21, and Nebraska at No. 25.
The absence of USC, Purdue, and Indiana is a mild surprise, and it does not exactly suggest a league loaded with depth entering the season. Michigan landing all the way down at No. 15 also stands out.
For Illinois, though, the bigger message is simple: this league is there to be won. The Illini have the talent, the fit, and the coaching to be dominant at both ends, and this looks like their best shot at an outright Big Ten title since 2005.
In Other News...
Illinois May Have A New Offensive Star Before Big Ten Play
Illinois rolled past Southern Illinois 48-10, and the biggest sign of what might be coming for the Illini offense came from Collin Dixon. Katin Houser found him for two second-quarter touchdown passes, and Dixon finished with eight catches for 131 yards while adding another entry to the record book at Gies Memorial Stadium with a single-season touchdown reception mark.
Bret Bielema had plenty of reason to praise Dixon after the game, especially with Big Ten play looming and Illinois looking for reliable playmakers who can tilt the field. Southern Illinois coach Nick Hill was left to absorb the loss and turn the page toward conference play of his own, while Illinois gets a clearer picture of how dangerous this passing game can be when Dixon is involved. [Read more 🡒]
Collin Dixon Is Forcing Illinois Fans To Rethink The Record Book
Collin Dixon has turned the first three games into a conversation piece for Illinois fans, and not just because of how quickly he has piled up yards and touchdowns. The wide receiver has seven receiving scores and 369 yards so far, enough to put his name on top of the record at Gies Memorial Stadium and to start drawing a fresh look at what the Illinois passing game can produce when one target keeps finding the end zone.
What makes it even more intriguing is how much history he is already chasing this early in the season. Dixon is close to tying and possibly breaking the Illinois single-season receiving touchdown mark, and he is already halfway to the career record as well, which says plenty about the pace he has set. The bigger question now is whether he can keep this kind of scoring run going long enough to turn a hot start into something that rewrites the record book. [Read more 🡒]
Illinois Win Eases One Concern But Raises Another For Fans
Illinois opened the season with a comfortable 48-10 win over Southern Illinois, and the kind of result fans wanted to see after a summer of questions. The offense had stretches that looked sharp, with the line doing its part and Katin Houser putting together a productive day through the air, which at least gave Illinois something to build on heading into a tougher stretch.
Still, the final margin did not hide everything. Even with Southern Illinois limited to 10 points, there were defensive issues that showed up enough to keep the staff's attention, and the performance left a mixed feeling for fans who wanted a cleaner all-around start. One concern may have eased, but the next one is already waiting. [Read more 🡒]