The Big Ten is set up to be one of the sport’s heavyweights again in 2026-27, even if the league may not quite match the heights it hit last season. Michigan’s national title and Illinois’ Final Four run gave the conference a banner year, and with several lottery picks heading into the 2026 NBA Draft, a small step back wouldn’t be a shock.
Even so, this still looks like a conference with serious depth. At minimum, it should stay in the top three nationally, and the top of the league appears to be a two-team battle between Illinois and Michigan State.
Illinois gets the nod in the regular-season race. Brad Underwood’s group is being picked to finish first, which would give him a second Big Ten title and add to his standing in school history.
The deciding factor here is simple: Illinois hosts Michigan State on Feb. 5, and that is the only meeting between the two. The Illini also project to have one of the best offenses in the country, which pushes them just ahead.
Michigan State is right there, though. Tom Izzo has another team with championship-level upside, and Jeremy Fears Jr. is the favorite here for National Player of the Year. The Spartans are expected to lean on a defense that could finish in the top five nationally, giving them a profile that matches Illinois almost point for point.
After that top tier, Nebraska comes in third. The Cornhuskers are coming off a Sweet 16 run and, even with Rienk Mast and Sam Hoiberg gone from Lincoln, they still bring back Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager.
Sandfort stands out as one of the best shooters around, and if Nebraska lands as high as projected, he could wind up in the Big Ten Player of the Year conversation. Fred Hoiberg is being trusted to keep the momentum going.
Purdue lands fourth, and there’s some belief here that the Boilermakers may be better than public perception. Last year they opened as the preseason No. 1 before falling to Arizona in the Elite Eight.
The old core of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn is gone, but Purdue still has CJ Cox, Daniel Jacobson, Jack Benter, Gicarri Harris and Omer Mayer in the mix. This may not be another Elite Eight team, but it should still beat expectations.
There’s also a wide middle that could send a wave of teams to the NCAA Tournament: UCLA, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland and Minnesota. Depending on how the expanded field plays out, all nine could have a shot.
Wisconsin is the safest bet in that group because it keeps outplaying preseason expectations. Ohio State and Indiana are the two teams held a little lower here, while Iowa and Minnesota could easily finish better than projected thanks to coaches with proven track records.
Altogether, 12 Big Ten teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament, with Minnesota just on the outside. Northwestern is the first team left out, and Chris Collins is given the edge within a group that also includes Washington, Oregon, Rutgers and Penn State. Still, none of those teams are projected to get close to the field of 76, and Oregon, Rutgers and Penn State are viewed as potential bottom-of-the-league clubs.
The award picks follow the same logic: team success matters. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the projected Big Ten Player of the Year, and he headlines the first team alongside Trey McKinney of Michigan, Pryce Sandfort of Nebraska, David Mirkovic of Illinois and Nolan Winter of Wisconsin.
The second team includes Elliot Cadeau of Michigan, Trent Perry of UCLA, Andrej Stojakovic of Illinois, Rodney Rice of USC and Pharrel Payne of Maryland.
Quentin Coleman of Illinois is the Freshman of the Year pick, while Brad Underwood takes Coach of the Year.
Illinois shows up all over the awards board because the Illini are projected to win the league, and that kind of team success tends to spread the honors around. Fears gets the Player of the Year nod because he is expected to control the show in East Lansing, and if Illinois finishes first, Underwood and several of his players should be rewarded for it.
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The first issue is defensive rebounding, which has left too many second-chance chances on the table, and the second is the challenge of staying in front of opposing guards. Those are the kinds of problems that can linger if they are not addressed quickly, so the matchup with UIC gives Illinois another chance to clean things up and show whether the early rough edges are turning into a real trend or just exhibition-season noise. [Read more 🡒]