Bret Bielema has already changed the conversation around Illinois football. The Fighting Illini have put together 19 wins over the last two seasons, built a tougher identity in Champaign and shown they can hang around with programs that used to feel out of reach.
But CBS Sports’ latest 2026 Big Ten projections say the next step is going to be much harder.
Brad Crawford’s forecast pegs Illinois for an 8-4 regular season and a 5-4 record in conference play, a solid year on paper that also serves as a reminder of how steep the climb still is in the Big Ten.
The early stretch looks friendly enough. Crawford’s model has Illinois opening with wins over UAB, Duke and Southern Illinois, then taking its Big Ten home opener against Purdue. That would send the Illini into a 4-1 start and give Champaign plenty to feel good about in the first month.
After that, though, the schedule turns ugly.
The back half of the slate is where the projections start to bite, and the biggest issue may not even be the opponents so much as the turnover Illinois is facing. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is gone, leaving a major hole at the most important spot on the field.
“Despite 19 wins over the last two seasons, regression is coming a bit for Bret Bielema's team this fall,” Crawford noted, pointing to the offense's need to replace key production while the defense adjusts to major structural changes.
Crawford’s model does still give Illinois a handful of wins once the conference grind intensifies. The projected victories include Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa. But the losses are the ones that define the outlook: road games at Ohio State, Michigan State and UCLA, plus a home matchup with Oregon.
That’s the reality of the expanded Big Ten. A respectable record can still leave a team stuck in the middle, and Illinois’ 2026 projection looks like exactly that kind of season.
“Illinois has raised the standard over the last two years, yet the combination of roster turnover, a more demanding schedule and inevitable growing pains prevents the Illini from taking the next step into the Big Ten's upper tier,” Crawford wrote.
An 8-4 finish would still land Illinois in a decent bowl game. But if the goal is to keep climbing, CBS Sports’ forecast says 2026 may be more of a checkpoint than a breakthrough.
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