Illinois football is getting very little love from ESPN’s latest preseason Football Power Index, and the numbers make the Illini look like a long shot for the College Football Playoff.
ESPN’s updated 2026 FPI pegs Ohio State as the clear favorite at 75.7% to reach the CFP, with Notre Dame right behind at 74.1% and Texas at 70.2%. Illinois, meanwhile, lands all the way down at No. 46 with a 4.7% chance.
That’s not much, but it’s not nothing either.
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance…”
The Illini are still more than a month away from opening the 2026 season, yet the early skepticism is already piling up. The Athletic placed only one Illinois player on any of its three All-Big Ten teams, and ESPN’s playoff projection adds another layer of doubt around a team that has won 19 games over the past two seasons.
Even with that recent success, ESPN’s projection has Illinois barely on the edge of bowl eligibility, forecasting a range of 5.3 to 6.7 wins. In the Big Ten alone, the Illini check in with the 10th-best chance to make the CFP.
That’s a pretty clear message: most people aren’t expecting much from Illinois this season.
The roster has more talent than the preseason buzz suggests, and Bret Bielema has already shown he can steer a program in the right direction. The transfer portal has also already proven it can reshape things in a hurry.
For Illinois, the lack of respect could be useful. The doubt is real, and it’s loud. But that kind of outside noise can also sharpen the edge inside the building.
Let them overlook the Illini. Let them call them middle of the pack. That kind of talk only adds more fuel to the fire.
Illinois will be a good program this season.
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What makes McCoy worth tracking is the blend of immediate usefulness and longer-term upside. He is expected to bring defensive value right away, with the ability to bother multiple positions, while his downhill burst and work on the glass hint at a bigger offensive role if the shot comes around. For Michigan, the question is not whether he can fit in early, but how quickly he can turn that two-way promise into something more substantial. [Read more 🡒]
Bret Bielema Just Raised A Massive 2027 Question For Illinois Secondary
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Clarke has already shown why his future matters, following up a strong 2024 with another productive season even while missing four games and still ranking among the Big Tens better ballhawks. Bielema clearly sees the possibility of another year in Champaign, but the calendar also points to a tougher question for Illinois: whether Clarke is in line to anchor the secondary again in 2027 or whether his next step comes in the NFL Draft instead. [Read more 🡒]
Katin Houser's Running Style Could Shape Illinois' Ceiling Under Bret Bielema
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That mobility is part of what makes Houser intriguing for Illinois, especially in a Big Ten that tends to punish quarterbacks who invite too much contact. Houser talked at Big Ten Media Days about needing to stay smart with his body and not leaning on the run unless he has to, which leaves the Illini with a familiar offseason question: how much of his ceiling comes from the threat of his legs, and how much can they ask him to use it without wearing him down? [Read more 🡒]