Brad Underwood has built Illinois into something college basketball can’t ignore anymore. The Illini are in the championship conversation again in 2026-27, and for good reason: they’re coming off a Final Four run and bring back five of the eight rotation players from that team.
That kind of continuity usually pushes a program straight into the favorite tier. Illinois has the frontcourt for it, too.
By the source’s own framing, it ranks among the nation’s top two front lines, even if Florida still gets the edge. The wings are loaded as well, with Andrej Stojakovic standing out as one of the best small forwards in the country and Jake Davis giving the Illini maybe the most experienced reserve in the sport.
Underwood’s staff also just showed it can steer the nation’s most explosive offense and, at times, an absurdly suffocating defense.
The one place where the picture gets a little murkier is the backcourt.
There’s no shortage of talent there. Quentin Coleman came in as a five-star recruit, Stefan Vaaks arrived as the No. 16 overall transfer in the portal, according to 247Sports, and freshman Ethan Brown is expected to be a steady bench piece.
On paper, that doesn’t look like a weakness. It looks like another Illinois strength.
But there’s a difference between talent and certainty, and that’s where the concern starts.
Vaaks is the proven name, but he has never been part of an NCAA Tournament team. Providence went 15-18 during his freshman season, which naturally raises the question of how much of his 15.8 points and 3.2 assists were a product of the situation. The bigger issue for Illinois is whether he can scale those numbers down and still stay effective when he’s sharing the floor with other high-level players.
At Providence, he had room to attack. At Illinois, he won’t get that same freedom.
If his usage drops, does his rhythm go with it? That’s the worry: a player trying to walk the line between being aggressive enough to matter and selective enough to avoid dragging down possessions.
And offense is the part of Vaaks’ game that looks safest. The defensive side is where the questions really stack up. At 6-foot-7, he averaged only 2.5 rebounds in 31.5 minutes per game last season, and the numbers were not kind on that end either, with a negative defensive box plus/minus and a negative defensive rating per EvanMiya.
Illinois will score either way. Vaaks just makes that easier.
But the Illini’s ceiling in 2026-27 is going to be decided on defense, and that means Vaaks can’t give anything away. If Illinois is going to lean on its size, its guards have to make that size count.
The other issue is that Vaaks is the only backcourt piece with any real proof attached to him. Coleman and Brown are freshmen, which matters.
Underwood spent plenty of time during the 2025-26 season answering some version of the same question about Keaton Wagler: When did you know he was that good? Underwood said he realized quickly after Wagler arrived that he had a player who was better than advertised, but he didn’t truly know until he saw him against outside competition.
The Florida scrimmage, he said, was his “first inclination” that Wagler was special.
Wagler’s rise was memorable because it was unusual. That kind of leap is the exception, not the expectation.
Illinois can’t count on both Coleman and Brown following that same path. That’s why Vaaks matters so much, and why point-forward David Mirkovic’s playmaking ability is part of the equation as well.
Even so, Coleman has to deliver for Illinois to be more than just a contender. If the Illini are going to be talked about as the favorite, he needs to meet the hype.
Brown, meanwhile, has to be at least dependable as the backup guard. Illinois could survive without a fully trusted reserve there, but it would hardly be ideal.
That’s the tension with this team. The upside in the backcourt is real.
The ceiling is high. But the floor is shakier than it might look from the outside.
If that floor shows up, Illinois won’t be hanging around the title race when April arrives. And that’s enough to keep the Illini from wearing the preseason crown.
In Other News...
Illinois May Have A New Offensive Star Before Big Ten Play
Illinois rolled past Southern Illinois 48-10, and the biggest sign of what might be coming for the Illini offense came from Collin Dixon. Katin Houser found him for two second-quarter touchdown passes, and Dixon finished with eight catches for 131 yards while adding another entry to the record book at Gies Memorial Stadium with a single-season touchdown reception mark.
Bret Bielema had plenty of reason to praise Dixon after the game, especially with Big Ten play looming and Illinois looking for reliable playmakers who can tilt the field. Southern Illinois coach Nick Hill was left to absorb the loss and turn the page toward conference play of his own, while Illinois gets a clearer picture of how dangerous this passing game can be when Dixon is involved. [Read more 🡒]
Collin Dixon Is Forcing Illinois Fans To Rethink The Record Book
Collin Dixon has turned the first three games into a conversation piece for Illinois fans, and not just because of how quickly he has piled up yards and touchdowns. The wide receiver has seven receiving scores and 369 yards so far, enough to put his name on top of the record at Gies Memorial Stadium and to start drawing a fresh look at what the Illinois passing game can produce when one target keeps finding the end zone.
What makes it even more intriguing is how much history he is already chasing this early in the season. Dixon is close to tying and possibly breaking the Illinois single-season receiving touchdown mark, and he is already halfway to the career record as well, which says plenty about the pace he has set. The bigger question now is whether he can keep this kind of scoring run going long enough to turn a hot start into something that rewrites the record book. [Read more 🡒]
Illinois Win Eases One Concern But Raises Another For Fans
Illinois opened the season with a comfortable 48-10 win over Southern Illinois, and the kind of result fans wanted to see after a summer of questions. The offense had stretches that looked sharp, with the line doing its part and Katin Houser putting together a productive day through the air, which at least gave Illinois something to build on heading into a tougher stretch.
Still, the final margin did not hide everything. Even with Southern Illinois limited to 10 points, there were defensive issues that showed up enough to keep the staff's attention, and the performance left a mixed feeling for fans who wanted a cleaner all-around start. One concern may have eased, but the next one is already waiting. [Read more 🡒]