Illinois is back in the conversation for another big finish, and the path is simpler than it looked a few weeks ago. After losses to Duke and Purdue made a nine-win season feel far away, the upset of Oregon and the road win at Maryland changed the mood fast. At 5-3 with four games left, the Illini suddenly have a real shot to keep the run going.
The case starts with the offense, which has enough pieces to carry Illinois through the stretch. Aidan Laughery has become the steady hand in the backfield, piling up 560 yards on 89 carries for 6.3 yards per attempt. With Ca’Lil Valentine out, Jordan Anderson and Javari Barnett have both stepped in and given the unit more juice, and Barnett added a key touchdown against Maryland.
The passing game has its own set of reliable targets. Collin Dixon has been the headline act with 781 yards on 60 catches and 10 touchdowns.
Hudson Clemente has been steady with 32 receptions for 453 yards, while Ty Robinson has chipped in 12 catches for 164 yards and three scores. Freshman Brayden Trimble is also coming on, and he picked up his first career touchdown against Maryland.
There’s reason for optimism on the other side of the ball, too. Illinois has had a rough defensive season overall, but the last two weeks have pointed in a better direction. The secondary, led by Matthew Bailey and Juice Clarke, has held up well, and the linebacker group has started to settle in after a shaky opening stretch.
Ismael Kante has put together 30 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss over his last four games, while James Kruetz has posted 36 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss and one sack in that same span. Up front, the pressure has started to show up more often. Over the last three games, Illinois has produced 15 tackles for loss and four sacks, along with five forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and an interception.
That leaves the final four-game run, and it’s not hard to see why Illinois fans can start doing the math. The Illini only need three wins in the last four to get to eight regular-season victories.
November 6 brings Nebraska to Champaign, and the Huskers have been a frustrating team in close games. They’ve taken fourth-quarter leads against Indiana, Oregon and Washington in their last three outings and lost all three.
Nebraska is averaging 13.6 points per game and allowing 18, and it has been outscored 39-10 in the fourth quarter. Illinois has a 75% chance of winning this one.
The next one is a different animal. On November 13, Illinois goes to UCLA for a Friday night game against one of only three undefeated teams in college football, even with the Bruins missing their starting quarterback. That one figures to demand a full effort, and the Illini should be able to stay within two scores.
Then comes Iowa at home on November 21. The Hawkeyes bring a defense that is always difficult to crack, even if the offense has been uneven.
Illinois’ defense should line up well with Iowa after what it showed against Oregon, but the real issue is whether the Illini offense can score enough. The kicking game could decide it, and Illinois has a chance to win it by a field goal.
The regular season closes on November 28 at Northwestern. The Wildcats have their own grind coming, with Iowa at home and then road trips to Ohio State and Minnesota before they see Illinois. That could leave them worn down by the time the rivalry game arrives, giving the Illini a better-than-60% chance to leave with a win.
If Illinois gets past Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern, it would reach eight regular-season wins. Add a bowl victory, and the Illini would finish with nine wins for the third straight season, something the program has never done. Even if the final total stops at eight, it would still be the first time Illinois has posted eight wins in three consecutive seasons since 1902-04.
In Other News...
Illinois Kept Winning But This Finish Raised A Bigger Question
Illinois had to grind for every inch Saturday, but it still found a way to leave College Park with a 20-17 win over Maryland. Ethan Moczulski finished it with a 26-yard field goal as time expired, a clean ending to a messy game that pushed the Illini to 5-3 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play.
The result came against a Maryland team playing under interim coach Aazaar Abdul-Rahim for the first time after Michael Locksleys dismissal, and the Terps made Illinois work far longer than the standings might have suggested. For the Illini, the win was the important part, but the way they got there also left a familiar question hanging over a team trying to hold its place in the conference race. [Read more 🡒]
Two Illini Stepped Up When Bowl Hopes Needed Them Most
Illinois needed someone to seize the moment late against Maryland, and it got exactly that from a pair of players who gave the game its defining swings. Freshman Javari Barnett broke loose for a 64-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, a burst that helped keep the Illini in striking distance in a game that stayed tight all the way to the finish.
Matthew Bailey also made his presence felt on the defensive side, stacking up tackles for loss and forcing a fumble as Illinois fought through a tense fourth quarter. The 20-17 win pushed the Illini to five victories, leaving them one more step away from bowl eligibility and giving this team a little more breathing room as the season turns toward its final stretch. [Read more 🡒]
Illinois Suddenly Has A Bigger Problem Before Its Season Opener
Illinois is already dealing with an early-season complication before the opener, as preseason All-American David Mirkovic will be sidelined after a setback tied to appendicitis and an appendix removal. Brad Underwood confirmed the absence but stopped short of offering any real timetable for when Mirkovic might be back, leaving one of the teams most important pieces in limbo as the season gets underway.
For Illinois, the good news is there is enough depth to absorb the loss in the short term, at least in the games immediately ahead. Still, losing a player of Mirkovics caliber this close to the start of the season changes the feel of the buildup, and the bigger question now is how long the Illini will have to manage without him. [Read more 🡒]